Divisional Round Predictions: Can the Eagles Pull Off the Massive Upset?
After suffering a 41-point dismantling at the hands of the Saints, it appeared that the Eagles season was over. The magic had run out. 8 weeks later, the birds get another crack at the team that humiliated them and shamelessly ran up the score. Frustrations boiled over to the point that safety Malcolm Jenkins went as far as to flip off his former head coach Sean Payton. It was especially embarrassing because prior to the season, Saints star RB Alvin Kamara proclaimed that if the Vikings hadn’t miraculously defeated the Saints in last year’s divisional playoffs, New Orleans would’ve gone on to “beat the (expletive) out of the Eagles”.
They did.
Clearly, the Eagles are a very different team from that week 11 shellacking, but the #1 seeded Saints provide an enormous obstacle for a team that just snuck into the postseason. Don’t tell that to the Eagles though. Regardless of their record or seed, the Eagles ooze confidence and swagger, and when Doug Pederson mentioned next week’s game in the locker room, the entire team grew excited. They want the Saints again, and just like Jason Peters stated, it’s not going to be the same outcome. The Saints opened as massive 9.5 point favorites, but the Eagles are used to being underdogs, as they’ve been their last four postseason matches (all victories). The question that remains is, how do the Eagles upset the Saints?
It all starts with slowing down MVP-candidate Drew Brees. Last time these teams clashed, Brees carved up the Eagles decimated secondary to the tune of 363 yards and 4 scores to go along with a sterling passer rating of 153.2. Philadelphia came in planning to slow down the league’s reception leader in Michael Thomas (4/92/1), which they did for the most part. In doing that, they allowed rookie receiver Tre’Quan Smith to rack up 157 yards and a score on 10 catches. The Eagles came into the game missing their top two corners and lost two more in Sidney Jones and Avonte Maddox during the game. Since then, Maddox has returned and blossomed into a high-end starter, and Rasul Douglas has stepped up on the other side and become the team’s best tackler. Because of the presence of Smith and Kamara, and the return of Ted Ginn, the Eagles cannot afford to give Michael Thomas too much attention, or they will be burned elsewhere. Maddox, who was toasted several times on double moves from Allen Robinson last week, will have to maintain discipline, or the Saints offense will make him pay.
The Saints came into the first match up averaging upwards of 36 points per game, but have significantly cooled off since then. In the five games Brees has participated in since then, he’s broken 205 yards only once. Holding New Orleans to anything under 25 points should be considered a giant victory for the Eagles defense. The defensive line, led by first-team All-Pro DT Fletcher Cox, has to hit home throughout the game. The Saints boast a top-shelf offensive line, but several of their starters are banged up. They must pressure and hit Drew Brees early and often, and keep him uncomfortable, like Mitchell Trubisky was last week.
The Eagles have done a stellar job of keeping star pass rushers at bay, even holding superhuman Khalil Mack to zero sacks. Cameron Jordan is the latest challenge for Philly’s O-line, but I have no doubt that they’ll make him mostly a non-factor. To make things easier for Nick Foles, the Eagles must try and establish the run, no small task against the NFL’s second ranked run defense. Even though the run game wasn’t working for most of last week’s game, the Eagles never departed from it, and broke a few timely runs to keep Chicago’s defense honest. On the flip side, New Orleans owns a bottom-five pass defense, and Doug Pederson must take advantage of that. Alshon Jeffery must be utilized like he was last week, and Foles must continue to trust him to win 50-50 balls. Golden Tate should be in for an expanded role, and a big game here could go a long way towards getting himself a new contract.
Philadelphia is playing inspired football, with last week’s victory improving them to 6-1 since the New Orleans beat down. They have all the motivation they need, and Doug Pederson is the definition of a player’s coach, he will get them to play. If Nick Foles can channel his inner G.O.A.T once again, I have faith in the Eagles ability to hang with the best of them. This game will not resemble the previous meeting between the two teams in any way, and I won’t be the least bit surprised if the underdogs pull one out of a hat yet again.
Completely Unbiased Prediction
#6 Philadelphia Eagles @ #1 New Orleans Saints
34-28, Eagles
Even though it appears that the Eagles have no shot at stealing a victory, I cannot bring myself to bet against Nick Foles. This Sunday, he will prove that he is the best QB from Westlake High School (sorry, it had to be said). Both teams will put four touchdowns on the board, but two Jake Elliott kicks (one early in the game, one late) will make the difference to send the Eagles to LA for another regular season rematch.
Game of the Week
#6 Indianapolis Colts @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs
38-34, Chiefs
The Colts have absolutely no business being a #6 seed, but thanks to that, we get an absolute treat of a divisional round game. The last time these teams went head-to-head in the postseason, Andrew Luck guided his squad to a one-point victory after trailing 38-10! This time around, we’ll get another high-scoring close finish, but without the humongous deficit in the middle. MVP-favorite Patrick Mahomes had the statistically superior season to Luck (well, to any QB), but Luck can hold his own in any shootout (almost 4,600 yards to go along with 35 TDs this season). Mahomes, thanks to his porous defense, has been trained for shootouts, and led the Chiefs to the top spot in PPG and YPG. The Colts have the upper hand defensively, but their pass defense has been inconsistent at times. To take the pressure off the right arm of Andrew Luck, Indianapolis will likely give KC a steady dose of Marlon Mack (Colts postseason record 148 yards last week). I said before that KC was going to miss Kareem Hunt come playoff time, but with the golden arm of their second-year star, they should be just fine for at least one more week.
Best of the Rest
#4 Dallas Cowboys @ #2 Los Angeles Rams
27-20, Rams
E. Elliott: 114 rush yards, 53 rec yards, TD
R. Woods: 98 yards, TD
#5 Los Angeles Chargers @ #2 New England Patriots
24-17, Patriots
M. Gordon: 121 yards, TD
J. White: 88 rec yards, TD, 32 rush yards
By Micah Jimoh