Looking at the CFB AP Top 10: The Top Tier is Stacked
Looking at the CFB AP Top 10: The Top Tier is Stacked
Alabama and Clemson have played each other in the playoff each of the last four seasons, and in every case, the winner of that game won the national championship. Sure, Alabama had to beat Georgia before getting their trophy in 2017, but the principle remains that these two teams have pretty much been the cream of the college football crop for as long as most of these players have been playing college football. This season has started no different, with Clemson and Alabama occupying either the one or two spot every week so far. The two teams are pretty much the uncontested co-kings of college football. It’s impressive, historic and nauseating if you’re a fan of literally any other top football school. But this season? There just might be some worthy contenders to unseat the reigning top teams.
Clemson should be set in the regular season. They don’t play another team ranked higher than 19 for the rest of the season, and any result other than an undefeated season would be a massive upset.
But Alabama is a different story. They play a Joe Burrow-led LSU team on November 9th that is currently ranked fifth, and the Tigers already have a win against a top-15 team in the Texas Longhorns. But that’s not all. The Iron Bowl at the end of the season? Against an Auburn team that is currently ranked at 12 and only owns a loss against the seventh-ranked Florida gators. And only a week later they’ll likely have to deal with whoever wins between Florida and third-ranked Georgia, who has been painfully close in two of their last three meetings. But before they get to any of those games, Alabama has to ensure that they take care of business against Texas A&M, currently ranked at 24. Alabama has yet to play a team currently ranked, but this season is far from over. There are several potential downfalls. On the other hand, an Alabama team that gets through this gauntlet undefeated will likely emerge stronger than ever. That’s a terrifying thought.
Fortunately for the rest of the country, there has never been so many teams in the top tier of college football. In fact, it probably hasn’t been this big since 2014, when there were six teams that had legitimate claims to the playoff and a few more who looked like contenders earlier in the season only to fall off later. This year, that tier could probably include as many as 11 teams, depending on how Texas, Notre Dame, and Auburn play for the rest of the season. Even excluding the one-loss teams, the resume of non-Alabama/Clemson contenders is impressive: Oklahoma leads the nation with 10 yards/play offensively and Wisconsin leads the nation in yards given up per play at 3.2 yards/play. Meanwhile, Georgia, Florida, and LSU all have impressive top-15 wins. And Ohio State? They’re in the top seven in both offense and defensive yards per play, scorning each supposed sneaky-upset game.
Could this finally be the year that neither Alabama or Clemson win a national championship? It looks more possible than ever. The national champion is almost definitely in the group mentioned above. Personally I think Wisconsin could potentially be a potential surprise to at least make the playoffs. They play Ohio State on October 26th, and will likely play them again in the Big Ten Championship. It’s possible that a loss in October that is avenged in November for the conference championship would get them in.
On the other hand, beating the Buckeyes even once is a tall task. The one idea that no one has presented (as far as I know) is two Big Ten teams in the playoff, but why not? If Wisconsin won a close game in October and Ohio State beat them in another close game to win the conference, we would have a fascinating situation at the end of the season. For what it’s worth, here are my mid-season predictions
My playoff predictions
Alabama
Clemson
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Anyways, you didn’t come here for playoff predictions! You came here for commentary on the top-25 teams! And lame jokes! And maybe some nacho cheese! We’re fresh out of cheese (why’d you come to this blog for that anyways?), but I have the other two for you. Let’s jump in after being gone for a week:
Alabama
AP Poll Ranking: 1
Last Week’s Ranking: 1
Week Six Result: N/A
Change: N/A
Analysis: Two weeks ago I said Clemson likely wouldn’t leave the number one spot. They technically were unseated by the current number one, the Alabama Crimson Tide. “Wrecker of Nations,” “Destroyer of Championship Hopes,” or simply “That Team Which Shall Not Be Named,” Nick Saban’s squad goes by many monikers. “Champion” is probably the only one they want. After a bye week last week, they face the Aggies of Texas A&M, which seems like a game that everyone will call a potential landmine game and then watch Alabama win 52-0. That’s what a Wrecker of Nations does.
Clemson
AP Poll Ranking: 2
Last Week’s Ranking: 2
Week Six Result: N/A
Change: N/A
Analysis: Two weeks ago I asked for suggestions on what to put in Clemson’s Analysis section. I missed last week’s column, but have yet to receive a suggestion. So this where I plug my Instagram and Twitter: @alex_spieldenner for Instagram and @aspieldenner for Twitter. And that is where YOU go and tweet at me telling me to stop telling stupid jokes in this article. I guess for this week I’ll plug our College Football Podcast, the RPO Podcast. I’m not on it, but our CEO Jerome Jones hosts it and it’s a cool discussion podcast about the topics surrounding college football. Check it out!
Georgia
AP Poll Ranking: T-3
Last Week’s Ranking: 3
Week Six Result: 43-14 Win vs. Tennessee
Change: No
Analysis: Georgia likely won’t be moved from 3 until they lose. They have the reputation as one of the closest teams to Alabama, they have a top-15 win against Notre Dame and they have a top-5 Offense in yards per play. Their game against Tennessee didn’t change anything, where they scored thirty-three straight points despite initially falling behind 14-10 in the second quarter
Ohio State
AP Poll Ranking: T-3
Last Week’s Ranking: 4
Week Six Result: 34-10 Win vs. Michigan State
Change: +1
Analysis: This was going to be the first team that was ranked when Ohio State played them, but Ohio State handled the Spartans. They outgained them 529-287, and J.K. Dobbins rushed for 172 yards and a touchdown. Only one more game and a bye week until Wisconsin come to Columbus…
LSU
AP Poll Ranking: 5
Last Week’s Ranking: 5
Week Six Result: 42-6 vs. Utah State
Change: No
Analysis: LSU outgained USU 601-168. Six. Oh. One. That is utter dominance. Joe Burrow was a monster, passing for 344 yards and five touchdowns while adding another on the ground. But a defensive effort that allows fewer than 200 yards might be even more impressive. It’s Utah State, but the Tigers took care of business.
Oklahoma
AP Poll Ranking: 6
Last Week’s Ranking: 6
Week Six Result: 45-20 Win vs. Kansas
Change: No
Analysis: Jalen Hurts had a combined 4 touchdowns, and the margin likely would have been wider if Kansas hadn’t scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. But this week is the one that really matters, as Oklahoma heads to the Cotton Bowl to take on #11 Texas. That game will likely either bring the Longhorns back into the playoff hunt or set the Sooners solidly into the driver’s seat for the Big 12 championship. Check back next week.
Florida
AP Poll Ranking: 7
Last Week’s Ranking: 10
Week Six Result: 24-13 Win vs. #12 Auburn
Change: +3
Analysis: Florida had one of the most impressive wins of the season last week, beating Auburn 24-13 and setting themselves up to make a move in the second half of the season. Kyle Trask has played excellently since coming in for an injured Feleipe Franks and continued his excellence with 234 passing yards with two touchdowns. Two concerning things to note, however: First, Trask fumbled three times in the game (source: ESPN.com). The fumbles will be something to watch as the season goes along, and will be costly against a better team. Second, Trask hurt his left knee during the game. He should be fine, but it would be catastrophic to lose two quarterbacks over the course of the season. And Florida will need Trask to be at his best this weekend: they head to Baton Rouge to play #5 LSU on Saturday. A win would likely catapult them into the top 4, but a loss could eliminate them completely. That’s the nature of the SEC...it’s a scary place, and few come out after entering. I think that’s where the nacho cheese went too, incidentally.
Wisconsin
AP Poll Ranking: 8
Last Week’s Ranking: 8
Week Six Result: 48-0 vs. Kent State
Change: No
Analysis: Legend says you can hear the rushing attack from four miles away as they mercilessly pound their opponent into the ground. Rocks have been known to shake four blocks away during a Jonathan Taylor touchdown. Even the stadium threatens to collapse when the team is truly rolling. Okay, In all fairness to the University of Wisconsin, their stadium is perfectly safe...For anybody not playing Wisconsin that day. As long as Wisconsin can manage to win each of their next two games, the matchup against Ohio State should be the best the Big Ten sees all season, unless it’s surpassed by the Conference Championship rematch. One thing to note: Wisconsin may have the nation’s top defense, but Ohio State is no slouch either. Check out the numbers in the intro. Maybe, more importantly, the Buckeyes have a significantly better offense. Wisconsin will likely need a big game from QB Jack Coan to beat the Buckeyes twice, but it can be done.
Notre Dame
AP Poll Ranking: 9
Last Week’s Ranking: 9
Week Six Result: 52-0 vs. Bowling Green State
Change: No
Analysis: Notre Dame is going to need some help to get into the playoff, but they didn’t have any problem crushing the Falcons of Bowling Green State. For the record, I’ve always been partial to BGSU. My dad graduated from there, and besides their jersey configuration reminds me of the Cleveland Browns. Yes, that’s a good thing, you jerks.
Penn State
AP Poll Ranking: 10
Last Week’s Ranking: 12
Week Six Result: 35-7 vs. Purdue
Change: +2
Analysis: Penn State has had a hard time getting any credit, but that can easily be remedied by beating Ohio State on November 23. For now, they looked just fine against an overmatched Purdue squad led by backup quarterback Jack Plummer. Fun fact about Plummer: He and I played high school football together. We were in the same year on the football team at Gilbert High School in Arizona, and while I can’t say I ever caught a pass from him in a game, I definitely caught a pass from him in practice. Does that count? Either way, he’s an incredibly smart guy and an excellent quarterback. I can’t wait to see what he does from here.
All statistics according to sports-reference.com unless otherwise noted.
-By: Alex Spieldenner
Instagram: alex_spieldenner
Twitter: @aspieldenner