Can Baltimore Hand the Patriots Their First Loss of the Season?

Can Baltimore Hand the Patriots Their First Loss of the Season?

The Patriots and the Ravens will face off in primetime on Sunday night. The contest will be the 14th matchup between the two teams in a series that has been historically dominated by the Patriots, who have won ten of the 13 games.

The current Ravens team led by Lamar Jackson is looking to uproot history this week, and there are a few reasons why they have a solid chance of taking down the undefeated defending champions.

Offensive Comparison

The biggest X-factor the Ravens have is Lamar Jackson himself. Jackson is currently tenth in rushing yards this season with 576 and three rushing touchdowns. He is currently on pace to beat Michael Vick’s 2006 record for the most rushing yards in a season by a quarterback. Jackson has proved to be a matchup nightmare all season long with his ability to turn broken plays into big gains.

Besides Jackson, the Ravens rushing game, in general, is the best in the league. Mark Ingram is 13th in rushing yards with 470, and he’s tallied seven touchdowns in seven games this season. The Ravens are averaging 204.1 rushing yards per game, which is more than 30 yards greater than the second-place 49ers. While the Patriots defense is having a historically great season, the ground game could be one place where the Ravens can exploit them. A week ago Nick Chubb rushed for 131 yards on 20 attempts in Foxborough.

Baltimore’s passing game ranks in the bottom third of the league. Jackson is ranked 20th with 1,650 passing yards to go along with eleven touchdowns and five interceptions. Bill Belichick is going to do his best to slow down Jackson’s run game, so the young quarterback will have to prove his ability to make pass plays on Sunday. With Marquise Brown set to return from injury this week he will have an extra weapon to utilize through the air.

The Patriots offense, as it has for the past nearly two decades, is run by Tom Brady. Brady’s receiving cast is underwhelming this season following Rob Gronkowski’s retirement, but that hasn’t stopped him from ranking fifth in the league with 2,251 passing yards. The recently acquired Mohamed Sanu will bolster the receiving unit this week.

The Patriots running game is the 23rd best in the league with just 95.3 yards per game. As they will be facing off against one of the premier rushing defenses in the NFL, New England will be extra reliant on Tom Brady this week.

Defensive Comparison

Conversations about defense this season have been focused on the Patriots defensive unit, which is having a staggeringly dominant season. They have forced 25 turnovers and scored six times on defense and special teams through their first eight games. If Tom Brady’s offense hadn’t scored a single point yet this season the Patriots would still have a record of 4-2-2. This defense hasn’t given up more than 14 points in a single game yet this season.

New England’s pass defense has allowed the second-fewest yards in the league this season with 1,872. They have been employing a zero blitz, forcing quarterbacks to have to get rid of the ball early. Sam Darnold famously struggled with the scheme a few Mondays ago. The Patriots have enough talent in their secondary to play man defense while they stack the box and send guys flying into the backfield. As they face another young quarterback this week you would expect Bill Belichick to try and force some mistakes from Jackson by applying pressure.

As I mentioned before, the Patriots run defense could potentially be exploited by the Ravens rushing game, but that doesn’t mean that they’re not studs against the rush. New England is currently allowing the fourth-least rushing yards per game with 85.3. They will no doubt face their toughest test this weekend.

Baltimore’s rush defense is actually outperforming New England’s entering this week’s matchup. They are tied for second in the NFL allowing just 84.3 yards per game. The real challenge for Baltimore is going to be slowing down Brady and the passing attack. They rank 26th against the pass and are giving up more than 260 passing yards per game. However the recently acquired Marcus Peters looked strong in his first game with the team against Seattle, and cornerback Jimmy Smith is supposed to be returning from injury this week. Those two will need to have a big performance this week to slow down Tom Brady. 

Insights and Prediction

This game is stacking up to be one of the most intriguing contests of the week. The Ravens are well rested and coming off of a bye week. The week before that they earned an impressive win on the road in Seattle. As a whole, Baltimore has been more tested with their schedule up until this point in the season. They’ve already faced two of the better teams in the league with the Seahawks and the Chiefs. The Patriots toughest opponent so far has been the 5-2 Bills, and they’ve already played the New York Jets twice. New England won’t have their bye until Week 10, and you begin to question if they can maintain their level of play for one more week before they can rest.

The result of the game is going to largely depend on mistakes and turnovers, two things the Patriots often commit few and force plenty. Lamar Jackson will have to manage the game efficiently and avoid turning the ball over. That is easier said than done, but he can challenge this historically great Patriots defense in ways that no other player in the NFL can. 

I think Lamar has a solid game through the air and on the ground, and I think the Ravens defense does just enough to win a close game. 

28-24 Baltimore.

-By: Jonny Hart