Looking at the CFP Top 10: Just How Many Contenders Are There?
Looking at the CFP Top 10: Just How Many Contenders Are There?
I wrote an article earlier in the year saying that the top tier of college football is as big as it has ever been, with so many teams all holding excellent arguments for consideration as a playoff team. Since that article, that field has been trimmed from a probably-too-optimistic Eleven to...ten? I wasn’t anticipating the rise of Minnesota since then (I don’t think anybody was), and both Georgia and Alabama have returned strong since their single loss. But just how many teams actually have a chance at making the playoff?
The top four are each in if they win out. If LSU beats Georgia, the Bulldogs are almost certainly out, but the fact remains that all four of the top teams control their own futures. Alabama, on the other hand, is in the uncomfortable situation of likely being one of at least the top-6 teams in the country, but with an injured Tua Tagavailoa and no immediate path to the conference championship, they might not have a path in. Alabama would almost certainly be on the outside looking in if either Ohio State or LSU lose in their conference championships, as that would probably leave:
An undefeated Clemson team that is finally clicking
A one-loss Georgia with a victory over LSU
A one-loss Big Ten Champion (probably Minnesota) with a victory over Ohio State
A one-loss LSU team with only a loss to now second-ranked Georgia
And a one-loss Ohio State that has consistently looked like the best team in college football and has only lost to the conference champion.
One of these five would have to be left out, but there’s no way that Alabama would make it two. Their best hope is that everyone takes care of business in the top-3 and that the Pac-12 isn’t able to convince the committee that the conference champion, either Oregon or Utah, deserves to get in over Alabama.
Now that I think about it, who gets knocked out in the above scenario? Obviously, we don’t know if either LSU or Ohio State gets blown out, but it would be difficult to put either team either above the team that beat them or out of the playoff. Personally, I’d probably leave out LSU due to the fact that Ohio State has looked more complete and at this time would potentially have two or three top-10 victories to match LSU’s, but as an Ohio native, I’m also just a biiiiiit biased. Let’s just say I’m glad I don’t have to decide.
LSU
CFP Ranking: 1
Last Week’s Ranking: 1
Week 10 Result: 58-37 win vs. Ole Miss
The top-ranked team for two straight weeks, LSU acquired the top spot from beating Alabama, who currently sits at #5. QB Joe Burrow has been phenomenal, and many people are saying that something drastic would have to happen for the season to end with anyone else taking home the Heisman trophy. The worst of the Tigers’ schedule is over, with the only team likely to be ranked left on their schedule is whoever ends up in the SEC championship. Ed Orgeron’s squad now only needs to avoid complacency for the next two weeks and they might have it wrapped up before kickoff at the conference championship.
Ohio State
CFP Ranking: 2
Last Week’s Ranking: 2
Week 10 Result: 56-21 win vs. Ohio State
The Buckeyes are finally into the three most important weeks of their schedule, starting with a game against #8 Penn State and likely ending against #10 Minnesota. In between those two games is the biggest game for any Ohio State season, the regular-season ending matchup against #13 Michigan, who has rattled three straight wins against #16 Notre Dame, Maryland and Michigan State after struggling to begin the season. Admittedly both Penn State and Minnesota are a little bit less exciting after both teams have lost, but it’s still three straight top-15 games. If anybody was worried that Justin Fields and Co. were going to go the whole season without being tested, they should put those concerns to rest. Also of note: after an appeal of his suspension, Chase Young is going to be back against Penn State. His presence is going to be crucial as he looks to add to his 13.5 sacks on the season.
Clemson
CFP Ranking: 3
Last Week’s Ranking: 3
Week 10 Result: 52-3 win vs. Wake Forest
Clemson dispatched the last ACC team on its regular-season schedule easily, sending a 7-3 Wake Forest team home 52-3. The defending national champs now have a bye against poor South Carolina, and then likely either Virginia Tech, Pitt or Virginia in the Conference national championship. Trevor Lawrence has rebounded nicely since a weak opening to the season, and now sports a better passer rating than he had in his freshman year. But the best player on the offense is Travis Etienne: the junior running back has over 1500 yards from scrimmage and sports a mind-blowing 8.9 yards per touch. That’s almost a full yard better than the next-best back. Does anybody want to tell me why he isn’t getting any Heisman attention?
Georgia
CFP Ranking: 4
Last Week’s Ranking: 4
Week 10 Result: 21-14 win vs. #15 Auburn
Georgia’s lone blemish remains their uncharacteristic upset against South Carolina, making them a dangerous candidate in the SEC and playoff picture. With no ranked teams left on the schedule until the conference championship, the Bulldogs could enter the SEC championship against LSU as a one-loss team with one of the best defenses in the nation and a decent argument even with two losses. Don’t look, SEC haters: If they beat LSU with only one loss, I virtually guarantee two SEC teams going to the playoff. There’s just no team in the one-loss category that has a resume that matches up to LSU’s, and the SEC champion isn’t getting left out with one loss. One interesting note: If you had told me at the beginning of the season that two teams in the SEC had a legitimate chance at the playoff and Alabama wasn’t one of them, I would have told you were crazy. But here we are.
Alabama
CFP Ranking: 5
Last Week’s Ranking: 5
Week 10 Result: 38-7 win vs. Mississippi State.
That rumble you hear in the distance is the angry Crimson Tide fans at me not including Alabama in the SEC teams that can make the playoff. To be fair, I do actually think it’s possible. But their playoff chances went down dramatically when Tua Tagavailoa went down with a season-ending injury, and now the game against #15 Auburn looks much more intimidating than it did a month ago. Can the backup quarterback, Mac Jones, save their season? It remains to be seen. But if Georgia wins the SEC it becomes virtually impossible without either Ohio State or Clemson losing, as well. Even then, I have a hard time seeing Alabama getting in over Ohio State if both teams are one-loss non-champions. Hold your breath, Alabama. Things could get rough from here.
Oregon
CFP Ranking: 6
Last Week’s Ranking: 6
Week 10 Result: 34-6 win vs. Arizona
Oregon’s biggest weakness remains their schedule: their highest-ranked opponent remains Auburn, who beat them in the first week of the season. Their only other ranked game was against #23 USC, which they won comfortably. Oregon’s best hope currently remains in the other team playing for the Pac-12 championship: #7 Utah. A win in the last week of the season against a top-10 team would do wonders for Oregon’s credibility, and might be enough to slip them into the playoff. Again, though, it likely depends on Georgia’s getting beat by LSU in the SEC championship. There’s hope for Oregon, though.
Utah
CFP Ranking: 7
Last Week’s Ranking: 7
Week 10 Result: 49-3 win vs. UCLA
Utah has an even weaker resume than Oregon. There’s not a ranked win on their schedule currently, and the only team currently in the top-25 on their schedule is USC, who beat them 30-23. Would a victory against Oregon and a conference championship be enough to put the Utes into the playoff? It remains to be seen. The one thing Utah can and should continue to point to: In points allowed per game, yards allowed per game and yards allowed per play, Utah’s defense remains in the top-5. That’s better than Penn State, Alabama, Oregon, and LSU. Their offense is weak, but that defense from out Northwest is elite.
Penn State
CFP Ranking: 8
Last Week’s Ranking: 9
Week 10 Result: 34-27 win vs. Indiana
Penn State can revitalize their playoff run by a victory against Ohio State this week. The Nittany Lions have two top-25 wins currently, and it is very possible Indiana ends up ranked by the end of the season. Add a win against the current second-ranked team in the nation and avenge its one loss against Minnesota in the Big Ten championship? Penn State would almost definitely be in. On the other hand, beating Ohio State is looking like a more and more difficult task every week that goes by. This game will be monumental in figuring out exactly how good Penn State is, and how good Ohio State is, for that matter.
Oklahoma
CFP Ranking: 9
Last Week’s Ranking: 10
Week 10 Result: 34-31 win vs. #13 Baylor
Put simply, Oklahoma is in real trouble. The Sooners simply have too many impressive teams ahead of them, and are likely a victim of their own success with the overall “meh” response to their still-best-in-the-nation offense. As Heather Dinich points out in her article on ESPN, the Sooners don’t have another truly impressive win on their schedule, so the fact that a win against a top-15 team in Baylor failed to move them ahead of even Penn State, Utah or Oregon is a sad indictment of what the committee thinks of them. Sorry, Oklahoma fans. This might be where the non-contender section begins. Feel free to make yourself comfortable.
Minnesota
CFP Ranking: 10
Last Week’s Ranking: 8
Week 10 Result: 19-23 loss vs. #17 Iowa
Minnesota, on the other hand, still might have a chance if they win out and beat Ohio State in the playoff, as outlined in the same article above by Dinich. The Golden Gophers likely suffered from a serious let down after the emotional win against Penn State, and P.J. Fleck’s group now has made every game an elimination game going forward. On the other hand, it’s highly possible that they wouldn’t have gotten in if their only loss was to Ohio State, anyways, so the conference championship might have always been their only path to the playoff. Is it fair? Probably not. But it’s just the way it is. Fortunately for Minnesota, they have a real opportunity at some good, old-fashioned resume padding when they play against #12 Wisconsin next week. That is, of course, assuming they beat the Badgers.
All game results, statistics and ranking information according to sports-reference.com unless otherwise noted.
-By: Alexander Spieldenner
Writer/ Interviewer