Looking at the CFP Top 10: The Rankings Are Starting To Matter
Looking at the CFP Top 10: The Rankings Are Starting To Matter
The College Football Playoff Rankings came out this week, giving us our first taste of what the committee thinks of this year’s crop of teams. All year we’ve had to deal with AP polls, predictions and speculation about who the top team will be in the only ranking that matters. Did you make it? Did your team? Well, maybe next year. But mourning is for another time! Now, finally, we have the Playoff rankings. A few thoughts before we get to the rankings:
Ohio State is where it belongs at Number One, but not for long. Whichever team wins the Alabama-LSU matchup is virtually guaranteed the top spot in next week’s rankings, and the fact that the Buckeyes are number one in the initial rankings is more a token nod to their impressive season so far than anything else. Which, to be fair, describes virtually every Playoff ranking before the last one. The reality is that there’s likely no scenario, barring some disaster between the Tide and the Tigers, that sees Ryan Day’s team keep its top ranking. But that’s okay. They likely have their own top-5 (and maybe top-3) game coming soon in the form of their game against Penn State. If Ohio State can manage to win that, they’re almost guaranteed to find themselves back on top.
The committee really, really doesn’t respect Clemson. Overreactions are a part of football, but the fact that the defending national champions didn’t even begin the Playoff rankings in the top four despite an undefeated record speaks volumes about the committee’s view of Dabo Swinney’s squad. It has led some to suggest that Clemson likely doesn’t have a one-loss path to the playoff. I’m not fully convinced yet, but it’s looking more and more likely that the only Tigers team that makes it is a Tigers team with no losses. The group of undefeated and exceptional one-loss teams is looking really formidable right now, and Clemson may have a hard time getting in over, say, a Penn State team whose only loss is to a Big Ten Champion Ohio State.
Oklahoma has work to do, but all is not lost. Look, I understand Sooner fans. I really do. You guys are already feeling the pressure because, well, if Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield can’t beat the SEC, who can? And then this season, it feels like the margin for error is about the width of a toothpick. And then you lost to Kansas State, and Texas is unranked (you might prefer that, but it doesn’t actually help you much), and you came into the Playoff rankings at number 9, the lowest-ranked top team in any conference. Even the Pac-12 has two teams ahead of you! But don’t despair. There is a reason to keep your collective heads up. As Stewart Mandel pointed out, Kansas State is not a bad team, and they are ranked at 16, giving you a better loss than Utah or Georgia. If they keep winning it will only look better. And actually, your two best wins are yet to come: Oklahoma State and undefeated Baylor await in the coming weeks, and wins against each of them will give you two top-25 wins, three if Texas can manage to crawl back into the rankings. Besides, teams ahead of you are going to lose. It’s just the nature of college football. But if you still need some inspiration, look to Ohio State in 2014: The eventual national champions were ranked eighth in the rankings that came out on November 9. They didn’t make the top 4 until the last rankings of the season. Be patient and keep winning. You never know what will happen.
Just to clarify, somebody pointed this part about Ohio State out before me but I can’t remember who and can’t find the place. The information is all on Sports-Reference.com, though.
Speaking of 2014, Arizona State was ranked as high as sixth before losing a few games and falling out of contention, ending the season at fifteen. Can you imagine an ASU team ranked sixth? That was also the year Ole Miss and Mississippi State were both in the top four at the same time. 2014 was wild.
Due to the nature of the new Playoff rankings, I won’t be including last week’s ranking or movement in each school’s section. I will include it again next week.
Ohio State
CFP Ranking: 1
Week 10 Result: No Game
Ohio State takes the spot many felt was rightfully theirs, number one. I’ve already addressed how they’re not going to hold onto it, but here are some crazy things to know about the Buckeyes: They are number one in the country in points allowed per game, yards allowed per game and yards allowed per play; they’re also third in points scored offensively per game, sixth in yards per game and seventh in yards per play/ JK Dobbins has over 1100 yards rushing after only eight games; Chase Young has 13.5 sacks over the same span. So much of this is just re-hashing what I said last week because none of the top four teams played a game, but what else is there to say? Ohio State plays Rutgers and Maryland in consecutive weeks before Penn State, so I may just have to check back with you in two weeks.
LSU
CFP Ranking: 2
Week 10 Result: No Game
This might be the biggest game LSU has played in since the 2011 season, when they played Alabama twice in a season, including in the national championship. LSU has had a top-5 offense led by Joe Burrow, and they come against an Alabama team with a likely-hobbled Tua Tagovailoa. A loss isn’t catastrophic, but it does hurt. Besides, LSU has played little brother to Alabama ever since 2011. A win would go a long way to reset the SEC power balance.
Alabama
CFP Ranking: 3
Week 10 Result: No Game
It’s probably a terrible idea to expect any team to beat Alabama, particularly considering that they’re coming in as underdogs. An angry Alabama is a scary Alabama, and a scary Alabama is no fun for anyone. A loss probably doesn’t kill Alabama’s playoff chances either...it’s hard to imagine a one-loss Alabama team ever getting left out of any playoff. But a loss would suddenly make the Tide seem very beatable (crazy logic, I know), and a loss would put LSU in the drivers’ seat for the conference. Fortunately for the Tide, this team is still very good, with a top-5 offense led by one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Besides, it’s Alabama. Never bet against Alabama.
Penn State
CFP Ranking: 4
Week 10 Result: No Game
Overshadowed by Ohio State, Penn State is the other Big Ten unbeaten (not to be confused with the surprise Big Ten unbeaten, that would be Minnesota). But despite playing second fiddle, Penn State’s defense has been excellent: they trail only Ohio State in points allowed per game, and rank fourth in points allowed per play. Their offense has been something of a struggle, however, which would likely be the cause if they ended up losing to Ohio State (or Minnesota). Penn State also stands as the Big Ten’s best hope of getting two teams into the playoff, as a close loss to Ohio State accompanied by convincing wins everywhere else would be hard to turn away.
Clemson
CFP Ranking: 5
Week 10 Result: 59-14 win vs. Wofford
The defending national champions have slipped all the way to fifth in the first playoff rankings, but the reality is that if they win out they’re in. It’s true that they came within one point of North Carolina, but, statistically, they also have a top ten offense and defense. Dabo Swinney is still one of the best coaches in the country, and many of the pieces are here that won a national championship last season. Clemson should be fine as long as they can avoid an uninspired loss in the last few weeks. Tiger fans have to hope North Carolina was as close as it will get.
Georgia
CFP Ranking: 6
Week 10 Result: 24-17 win vs. #10 Florida
Georgia won the biggest game of the week in a matchup against fellow SEC contender Florida. A win means that the Bulldogs are still alive in the playoff race, but it looks unlikely that it would take anything less than winning out to make the playoff. In Georgia’s favor: two top-15 wins against Florida and Notre Dame, as well as what looks like two more coming with #12 Auburn and whoever plays in the SEC Championship. The bad news: Auburn is a top-15 team and Alabama or LSU will almost definitely be playing them in the conference championship. It won’t be easy, but if Kirby Smart and Co. can manage it they’ll deserve the playoff spot.
Oregon
CFP Ranking: 7
Week 10 Result: 56-24 win vs. USC
Since when did the Pac-12 have a contender for the playoff? Oregon hasn’t been particularly statistically dominant nor have they beaten many ranked teams. What they have done, though, is win every game since their opening week loss to Auburn. Justin Herbert has been solid, CJ Verdell is on track to rush for 1000 yards on the season, and the defense has been decent if statistically unspectacular. I honestly don’t know what to say about their chances except for this: There isn’t a scary team on the schedule until they likely play Utah in the conference championship. If both teams can enter as one-loss teams, it might be a play-in game to the playoff to play Ohio State.
Utah
CFP Ranking: 8
Week 10 Result: 33-28 win vs. Washington
The toast of Utah is their top-10 defense, but Zack Moss already has over 1000 yards from scrimmage. Admittedly as a unit the offense is average at best, but like Oregon, there isn’t a scary team left to play on their schedule. If they keep winning things will get very interesting in the Pac-12.
Oklahoma
CFP Ranking: 9
Week 10 Result: No Game
Oklahoma got an entire section to themselves above, so I’ll keep this brief. Jalen Hurts is still good, and he’s still leading the nation’s top offense. Obviously, it’s hard being a Big 12 defense, but if the Sooners win out it will be very hard to keep them out of the playoff. If Kansas State keeps winning it will be even harder. Either way, it looks to be an exciting end to the season, and there’s something really fun, if somewhat frustrating, about having to watch the teams ahead of you.
Florida
CFP Ranking: 10
Week 10 Result: 17-24 loss to #6 Georgia
This officially marks the beginning of the eliminated teams. Please wipe your feet.
Florida isn’t necessarily a bad team, they’re still probably one of the 15 best teams in the country. But the reality is that a two-loss team isn’t getting in without college football being turned upside-down, shaken up, and haphazardly put back together. What does this metaphor mean? It means Florida getting in would only be due to some total chaos, and while that’s somewhat attractive it is so incredibly unlikely that it’s just not worth hoping for. Florida has had a good season, and can still compete for a New Year’s Six Bowl. Kyle Trask performed admirably in Feleipe Franks’ absence. But the playoff will have to wait another year.
All statistics, rankings, and game results according to sports-reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
-By: Alex Spieldenner
Blogger/Interviewer