Looking at the CFB AP Top 10: Where We Are After Two Weeks
Looking at the CFB AP Top 10: Where We Are After Two Weeks
As many writers like to point out, the first AP Poll for College Football is ultimately a guess. We haven’t seen any of the teams listed play real games against real opponents, and some players have never played meaningful snaps at the college level. Even after the first week, things still aren’t very clear. Sure, teams play games. But most Week One games are poor indications of how good a team really is, either due to small sample size or bad opponents. What is anyone truly learning from a game like Ohio State vs. FAU? Unless the Owls manage an upset, virtually nothing that will happen in that game will matter three months later. To use an overused metaphor, the cement is still very wet, and only the most cataclysmic mistakes can truly ruin the construction.
After week two, things are beginning to solidify. Things are far from final, but after two weeks of football certain trends can be seen. Is it the final word? Hardly. Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech in week two of 2014 before getting hot and eventually winning the national championship. But by week two, it becomes much easier to eliminate certain teams, and contenders start to emerge. Today we’re going to do our first of a series of AP Top 10 check-ins. How are teams moving? Where will they go from here? Let’s jump in.
Clemson Tigers
AP Poll Ranking: 1
Preseason AP Poll Ranking: 1
Analysis: They’re Clemson. The Defending National Champions are off to a solid 2-0 start and already have a top-25 win against #16 Texas A&M. They are arguably the most talented and best-coached team in the nation now, and until they give the AP a reason to take them out of first place they’ll stay there.
Alabama
AP Poll Ranking: 2
Preseason AP Poll Ranking: 2
Analysis: The premier program in college football for the last decade, Alabama has been to the national championship each of the last four years and has given the committee no reason to lower them from number two so far. Barring a loss, which would have to come to a lesser team if it happened in the regular season, Alabama is virtually a lock to stay in the top two until the playoff season. Even if an upset were to happen, a true collapse would likely have to take place for the AP to drop their favorite program out of the top five. And why not? You know what you’re getting from the Tide, and that’s consistent excellence.
Georgia Bulldogs
AP Poll Ranking: 3
Preseason AP Poll Ranking: 3
Analysis: Georgia is a talented team with an excellent coach and experienced quarterback who has won his job over two five-star prospects. But they also are better known for barely losing to Alabama every year than for their actual success. Can they get over the hump this year and actually win the SEC? It’s definitely possible, though before they get to the SEC Championship they have to beat Florida at home and Auburn on the road, both top-ten teams. They’ve looked good so far, but the true test of this team is yet to come.
Louisiana State Tigers
AP Poll Ranking: 4
Preseason AP Poll Ranking: 6
Analysis: LSU came into the season with optimism, a great defense and a new offense to fit their quarterback, Joe Burrow. So far, that optimism has seemed to be warranted, as the Tigers have scored an average of fifty points so far and beaten #12 Texas. Burrow is fourth in the nation in passing yards with 749, and the bandwagon is beginning to fill. But can they finally beat Alabama after surrendering 45 to Texas?
Oklahoma Sooners
AP Poll Ranking: 5
Preseason AP Poll Ranking: 4
Analysis: Oklahoma fell one spot this week to make room for LSU, but they have looked as dominant as ever under new quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts is a Heisman favorite right now, and after Texas’ loss to LSU, Oklahoma is easily the favorite to win the Big 12 yet again.
Ohio State Buckeyes
AP Poll Ranking: 6
Preseason AP Poll Ranking: 5
Analysis: The Buckeyes also fell one spot to make room for LSU, but so far the Ryan Day era has more than lived up to expectations. The defense has dominated, Justin Fields has played well and J.K. Dobbins is playing as the lead back he was expected to be. Last week’s game against Cincinnati was supposed to be a landmine game, but the Buckeyes won easily 42-0 against their old interim head coach Luke Fickell. The fact that it was a shutout was particularly exciting: are the famed silver bullets back?
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
AP Poll Ranking: 7
Preseason AP Poll Ranking: 9
Analysis: The Irish have moved up a bit as the bottom half of the top ten has seen some shuffling, but less is known about the team since they’ve only played one game so far. Each year, the conversation about Notre Dame’s place in the playoff is debated. If they can beat Georgia in two weeks, their argument gets much better and Georgia’s path becomes significantly harder. Stay tuned.
Auburn Tigers
AP Poll Ranking: 8
Preseason AP Poll Ranking: 16
Analysis: Auburn had the most impressive victory in week one, a last-second comeback against #15 Oregon. That was enough to propel them into the top ten, giving the SEC a stunning FIVE teams in the top ten. Is this sustainable? No. Teams are going to lose, especially as they play each other. But Auburn is seeking to be the team to run the table, and it won’t be easy. They currently play each team ranked 2-4. But if they can get out of the season with only one loss, they deserve a playoff spot with or without a conference championship. As it stands now they might deserve it with two losses, too.
Florida Gators
AP Poll Ranking: 9
Preseason AP Poll Ranking: 8
Analysis: Florida fell a few spots after what many viewed as a terribly sloppy game against a Miami team that has yet to win a game, but climbed gained some redemption with a dominating victory against UT Martin. As with each of the top SEC teams, their schedule is brutal, and a conference championship would be a huge accomplishment.
Michigan Wolverines
AP Poll Ranking: 10
Preseason AP Poll Ranking: 7
Analysis: After talking up their new offense all off-season, Michigan has an embarrassing 5.1 yards per play, and was able to score exactly 14 in regulation against Army last week. A fumble recovery in the second overtime allowed the Wolverines to escape with a win, but this team has struggled. Things will need to vastly improve by the time they play a better team.
-By: Alexander Spieldenner
Twitter: @aspieldenner
Instagram: @alex_spieldenner
All statistics according to sports-reference.com