Looking at the CFB AP Top 10: Preseason Fears
Looking at the CFB AP Top 10: Preseason Fears
All Statistics according to sports-reference.com
Every football team has a weakness. Because college football is played by human beings and human beings have yet to attain perfection, there are always going to be flaws in the well-oiled touchdown-scoring machine coaches are trying to build.
This is what makes the game fun, even when it isn’t actually being played. Little is known before the season, and even against inferior teams issues can come up only to be fixed by the time late-season games roll around. The hope is that the issues don’t cause a major derailment of the season before it even really gets started. Sometimes these issues turn out to be relatively minor, or even nonexistent if a new coach or player steps in better than anticipated. Ohio State came into the season cautiously optimistic that Ryan Day and Justin Fields would be able to avoid any major pitfalls before truly getting on a roll. Four weeks in, the team is on its way to an excellent start, albeit against all seriously disadvantaged teams. Likewise, Oklahoma was pretty sure it knew what it was getting with Jalen Hurts, but they didn’t truly know how good he’d be until he was on the field. Now he’s led them to a 4-0 start and is widely considered a Heisman candidate.
But sometimes those fears are grounded and become something all too real. Teams with concerns going into the season see them turn into very real issues, and that can ruin an otherwise promising season. Virtually every Big 12 team entering the season to comments about poor defense. The conference’s reputation is well known by now. But when you score 38 points against a top 10 team, as Texas did in week two, you should win. Unfortunately, Texas gave up 45 points to LSU and is now a longshot at best for the college football playoff. It happens, but being able to predict a team’s weaknesses and see it kill a season before your eyes is a particularly punishing way to watch a team.
Maybe the worst way to lose a season, though, is when you don’t see the flaws coming beforehand. Maybe this year was supposed to be different. After all, didn’t they bring in a graduate transfer to fill that spot? The new coordinator has a dynamite scheme that worked in the Sun Belt Conference. How could it not work? Michigan brought in a brand new offensive coordinator this season in Josh Gattis, and Shea Patterson was supposed to finally lead the Wolverines to the promised land as Jim Harbaugh’s hype would finally bear fruit in the form of a Big Ten championship and the ever-elusive victory against Ohio State. That has not shown itself to be the case so far. After barely escaping with a victory against Army two weeks ago, Michigan lost 35-14 to Wisconsin last week, and Shea Patterson was able to manage only 219 passing yards. Even worse, Dylan McCaffrey was put in to replace Patterson and then concussed. This season has all the makings of a disaster for the Wolverines, which is significant for a team hyped by many to win the Big Ten at the beginning of the year.
Anyways, I’m having too much fun piling onto Michigan. Let’s get to the Top 10.
Clemson
AP Poll Ranking: 1
Last Week’s Ranking: 1
Week Four Result: 52-10 win vs. Charlotte
Change: No
Analysis: Clemson doesn’t have another ranked team on their schedule, which means this is quickly going to get boring at the top. I may have to start writing about something else in Clemson’s analysis section. Cake Recipes? European capitals? How Freddie Kitchens is going to ruin a great Browns team if he doesn’t get his act together? If you have any ideas, let me know.
Alabama
AP Poll Ranking: 2
Last Week’s Ranking: 2
Week Four Result: 49-7 win vs. Southern Mississippi
Change: No
Analysis: Well I guess I could always write about how the SEC is so stacked (or overrated, depending on your conference affiliation) that teams 2-4 are all SEC teams and are all likely to stay there until they play each other. Hm...How would you guys feel about an advice column?
Georgia
AP Poll Ranking: 3
Last Week’s Ranking: 3
Week Four Result: 23-17 win vs. #10 Notre Dame
Change: No
Analysis: Amusement parks? No, that wouldn’t work...oh wait! Georgia actually played somebody! This was a close game, and Notre Dame put itself in a position to win. But ultimately a good team lost to a great team and Georgia came out on top. D’Andre Swift had 98 yards and a touchdown, and Jake Fromm added another through the air. But most of the Bulldog’s points came from kicker Rodrigo Blankenship, who kicked three field goals. So that’s cool. Kickers are people too, I guess.
LSU
AP Poll Ranking: 4
Last Week’s Ranking: 4
Week Four Result: 66-38 win vs. Vanderbilt
Change: No
Analysis: LSU had 599 yards of offense and Joe Burrow passed for almost 400. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase had over 200 yards receiving. Remember the beginning of the year, when I wrote about how LSU’s defense was its a strength? Well, the offense seems to be working pretty hard to prove me wrong. Come on guys, you’re making me look bad.
Ohio State
AP Poll Ranking: 5
Last Week’s Ranking: 6
Week Four Result: 76-5 win vs. Miami (OH)
Change: +1
Analysis: So Ohio State is officially better than Miami of Ohio. I’m pretty sure, anyway. A 42-point second quarter is fairly convincing. Instead of giving you a bunch of numbers to say the Buckeyes are better, I’ll give you a list of 42’s. 42 was: Jackie Robinson’s number, my own football number in high school, and approximately how many seconds it took you to get from Clemson to this point in the article. And for what? A few sarcastic lines about Ohio State’s beat-down on a MAC team. This column has gone down a strange, strange path. At least I can give you this: Ohio State’s dominating victory was enough to get them to leapfrog Oklahoma, who didn’t play this week. There, wasn’t that worth your time?
Oklahoma
AP Poll Ranking: 6
Last Week’s Ranking: 5
Week Four Result: No Game
Change: -1
Analysis: No, no it wasn’t. Hopefully, you’re here for the jokes because otherwise, that Ohio State analysis was just annoying.
Auburn
AP Poll Ranking: 7
Last Week’s Ranking: 8
Week Three Result: 28-20 win vs. Texas A&M
Change: +1
Analysis: Auburn had to feel good going into the fourth quarter, up 21-3. But Texas A&M scored 17 points in the last period to make the game interesting, and actually outgained Auburn 301-391 by the end of the game. I’m still withholding judgment until they play a top-10 team, but Auburn now has two wins against ranked teams. Are they for real? This wasn’t a statistically good win, but they made it happen. Let’s see what happens when they play Florida on October 5.
Wisconsin
AP Poll Ranking: 8
Last Week’s Ranking: T-13
Week Three Result: 35-14 win vs. #20 Michigan
Change: +5
Analysis: How dominating were the Badgers? Michigan couldn’t score a point until there were two minutes left in the third quarter, by which Wisconsin had scored 35. Michigan gave up 4 turnovers to Wisconsin’s 0, and all this with Wisconsin quarterback Jack Coan only passing for 128 yards. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor ran for 200 yards and Michigan didn’t even have a player rush for 25. That is the kind of physical domination that Wisconsin strives for, and how the Badgers play against Ohio State on Oct 26 will be something to watch. For now, they look like a safe bet to stay in the top 10 at least until then.
Florida
AP Poll Ranking: 9
Last Week’s Ranking: 9
Week Three Result: 34-3 win vs. Tennessee
Change: No
Analysis: Beating Tennessee is no great accomplishment, even Georgia State did that. And yes, Georgia State is an actual FBS school. So it makes sense that Florida would take care of business against the Volunteers. This is normally where reporters put a sentence like “but the way they did it was particularly impressive” or something, but as I’ve said I can’t watch these games. Do you think it was impressive? Kyle Trask had a nice game with 293 passing yards and a 2:2 touchdown to interception ratio, and the defense only allowed a single field goal while forcing 4 turnovers. Florida plays Towson next week (I’m not sure where that is either), but in two weeks they play #7 Auburn. As long as Auburn doesn’t totally flop next week that should be an exciting and important game for measuring two aspiring SEC champions.
Notre Dame
AP Poll Ranking: 10
Last Week’s Ranking: 7
Week Three Result: 17-23 loss vs. #3 Georgia
Change: -3
Analysis: For its admirable effort against a top-3 team, Notre Dame only falls three spots despite losing. There were moments when Notre Dame looked good against Georgia, at least those highlights I watched sure looked great. The Irish were only outgained by 20 yards by the Bulldogs, but they surrendered an extra turnover and now face a difficult path towards the playoff. They will probably need some help from other teams’ losses, not to mention that Michigan will need to start looking better if that potential win is going to mean something. Notre Dame had a chance to get an inside track to the playoff, but now they find themselves lagging behind.
-Alexander Spieldenner
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Twitter: @aspieldenner