The Fumble: The Big Ten Is Coming: Is the Rest of the Country Ready?
The college football regular season is, in many ways, more a test of avoiding mistakes than truly asserting dominance, and in most years one or two losses are the difference between making the playoff or having to remain content with a still-cool-but-not-that-important New Years’ 6 bowl.
For example, Notre Dame might have an incredibly talented roster, an experienced coach, and the ability to beat any top team in a single game. But lose one bad game to Virginia, and the Fighting Irish, who otherwise would have been playing against Clemson in the playoff, will find themselves in the Fiesta Bowl.
The Fiesta Bowl isn’t terrible; it has some great history and a beautiful desert setting. But it’s not a playoff game, and truthfully it lost a lot of the wonder when it moved from a stadium on the side of a mountain to an enclosed stadium in the middle of nowhere. I mean, come on. Take one look at the University of Phoenix Stadium and tell me that’s a fitting location for the greatest moments of the greatest sport in the country. Not a chance.
Sorry. I have the combination of being an ex-Arizona resident and an Ohio State fan, which means that the Fiesta Bowl means way more to me than it ought to. But my point is that even one game can ruin a season for a team in title contention. That’s what makes a team like Alabama so great. They are able to avoid mistakes when it matters most, and even if they do lose a weird game here and there, they are able to demonstrate that that loss was an exception, not a true indicator of their talent.
All of this is rather concerning with the Big 10 coming back this week, as much of the current AP top 10 struggled to overcome opponents against lesser opponents, and Georgia lost handily to Alabama. The country’s college football scene looks like it is the shakiest at the top as has been seen in years, which is probably because of the strange circumstances surrounding the season. Will this lead to a power shift long term? It’s unlikely, but count me as one of the ones who wouldn’t mind seeing a few new powerhouses.
Now, for the rest of the fumble…
If the Season Ended Today, the Playoff Teams Would Be...
Alabama
Clemson
Notre Dame
Georgia
The AP top 4 is looking pretty strong, though Georgia will almost definitely be out if the Buckeyes beat Nebraska this week. For now, though, they only move one spot down after losing to the Crimson Tide. The distance between the top 5 (including Ohio State) and Oklahoma State at six seems larger than normal, and I would be shocked if the cowboys stay where they are. But there’s always a chance, particularly for the team with the second-ranked scoring defense in the country.
Yup, Things Are Still Shaky in the Top 10
Remember how I commented last week about how North Carolina might be building a program after being ranked fifth? Well, they lost to an unranked Florida State, so if you have any rivals you want me to endorse, just email me. Speaking of bad endorsements, Notre Dame won by only 5 in a 12-7 game against an unranked and one-win team in Louisville. Even more bizarre: neither team had any turnovers. Could it just be a blip? Maybe. But the Irish definitely have some proving to do in the next few weeks.
UCF Keeps Falling
After losing last week to allow Cincinnati to claim the title of best Group of 5 teams, the Black Knights aren’t even looking like the second-best team in their division: they just lost to Memphis 49-50, and the UCF-Cincinnati game a few weeks down the road is rapidly losing its shine.
Notable Big 10 games to Watch This Week
The second-best conference in football is back this week, and the two most interesting games I’ll be paying attention to are Michigan vs. Minnesota and Ohio State vs. Nebraska. The Wolverines and Golden Gophers are both top 20 teams entering their season, and it will be interesting to see if PJ Fleck’s “Row the Boat” philosophy endures in a time of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes return after a heartbreaking end to their season against Clemson, and Justin Fields and co. are looking for revenge. The Buckeyes are looking to be one of the most exciting teams in the country, and their first game will be a good gauge for where they are right now.
Game of the Week
In a Big 12 matchup that forebodes trouble, fifth-ranked Oklahoma State will host seventeenth-ranked Iowa State. The cyclones seem to pull off a conference upset or two every year: will they play spoiler to the Big 12’s best hope at a playoff team this year?
G5 Game of the Week
Ninth-ranked Cincinnati is playing against sixteenth-ranked SMU in a game that really does seem to be a measure of the two best Group of 5 teams in the nation. A win for the Bearcats would give them a quality win and probably allow them to climb the rankings a bit. If SMU can take the game, however, they will have an inside track to the New Year’s Six Bowl awarded to the top Group of 5 teams in the country.
The Top of the G5 Rests With…
It’s going to be Cincinnati until they lose, although that could happen as soon as this week against SMU. If it doesn’t, the next best opportunity for a loss would either be Memphis or UCF, but there is a real chance this is the last ranked game during the regular season for the bearcats.
Writer
-By: Alexander Spieldenner