The Fumble: Managing Expectations in College Football
It’s finally beginning to look and feel like Fall here in Eastern Ohio, and though the weather is beginning to cool, college football is beginning to heat up dramatically.
Okay, okay, I know that pun was cliched. I beg your forgiveness. But seriously, with the SEC having played its first week, the Big Ten getting back into the AP poll and top-10 matchups on the calendar, things are starting to get interesting. College Football Saturdays are feeling very real again.
Of course, the potential for great pleasure means the potential for great pain; I’d give you an analogy but you can probably come up with one yourself. And besides, college football is a great example anyways. I was just talking this week with a friend about how the talent disparity in college football creates different standards of success depending on the team. It’s my original idea, I’ve heard it at least from The Solid Verbal podcast, and maybe others, but it remains true.
Ohio State fans will refuse to consider any season that fails to make the playoff a success, and even a failed playoff run is something of a disappointment. Northwestern, on the other hand, was thrilled at an 8-4 season a few years ago that won their division in the Big Ten. And Bowling Green State fans just hope to stay awake for the whole game for their Friday night Mac-tion.
Every team has slightly different goals, and the higher their expectations, the higher their accomplishment if such expectations are met, but the higher a chance that such expectations will not succeed, and likely the higher chance disappointment will be the result of a season. It means that every fan in college football has the chance at feeling their season was a success (a massive number of bowl games and rivalry games help here too), and that’s what makes the season so exciting for so many people.
So how do you come to decide what a “successful season” goal should look like? I think it depends on a lot of circumstances, which is another way of saying I don’t know. I’ll get back to you on that.
While I work out the math, let’s move forward with the Fumble.
If the Season Ended Today, The Playoff Teams Would Be…
Clemson
Alabama
Ohio State
Notre Dame
Oklahoma is out of the top-4 for now after they stumbled into their Big 12 schedule with a defeat at the hands of Kansas State. The Sooner lost to the same team last year, and they were able to overcome it by the end of the season. Will the same hold true this year with a shortened season? It doesn’t look particularly encouraging that they lost their first Power Five game, but there should be chances for redemption. Right now, though, Texas is the highest-ranked Big 12 school.
Your New Favorite Player
UCF Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has led the Black Knights to a 2-0 record so far with over 800 yards passing after passing for 3600 yards as a Freshman. The left-handed quarterback has solid accuracy, speed paired with a willingness to run, and is leading the top-ranked Group of Five teams in the country. Gabriel’s stock, already pretty high, should be rising for the entire season. A lot of UCF’s success is going to be dependent on Gabriel’s growth as a player; things are looking promising so far.
The Top of the G5 Rests With…
Cincinnati. Look. I know UCF is ranked higher. And Dillon Gabriel is more impressive than anybody Cincinnati has on offense. But the Bearcats just defeated Army, giving them the more impressive victory between them. I have to give it to Cincinnati until UCF becomes the clearly better team or beats them. Besides, Luke Fickell is cool.
An Upsetting Week
This was the first week that truly impactful upsets started happening, with both Oklahoma and LSU suffering losses to unranked opponents (though Mississippi State was given a place in the top 25 after beating LSU). Suffice it to say that both teams are probably missing the Heisman-contender quarterbacks that they lost in the offseason. In a season where every game means even more than usual, it is going to be incredibly difficult for either team to make up the lost ground. It won't be impossible, but it’s going to take some work.
The Biggest Blowout of the Week: SMU 50 - Stephen F. Austin 7
Remember how SMU might finally be back after what seems like a century of being...not even remotely good? Well Stephen F. Austin does. The Mustangs scored twenty-two in the first quarter after three touchdowns, a missed extra point, and a safety, and they cruised from there to end the game with a week-high 43 point victory. On a slightly strange note, two different SMU players, TJ McDaniel and Ulysses Bentley IV, had exactly 104 rushing yards. Stephen F. Austin had 51 rushing yards total. Just brutal.
Game of the Week: #7 Auburn vs. #4 Georgia
This is our first top-10 matchup of the season, and it’s an SEC showdown, no less. Admittedly, it’s the two younger brothers of Alabama arguing over the TV remote while their older brother is gone, but it’s still a fight worth watching. The winner of this game will likely put themselves firmly in the national title competition, and this is the sort of game Auburn seems to lose every single year. Will this be the one that changes that?
Writer
-By: Alexander Spieldenner