College Football: What To Expect On Championship Weekend
We made it!
Championship weekend awaits us in a short time. The College Football Playoff and the rest of the unclaimed bowl games will be decided, and we have a clear picture of what the college football postseason will look like. I will not move off my couch for most of the weekend, and I don’t expect you to either. Here’s what I think will happen:
*I will only be picking the Power Five conference championship games*
Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon vs No. 13 USC(-3.5)
Friday, Dec 18. 8 p.m. ET
It’s really fitting that this disaster of a Pac-12 season spits out a championship game that isn’t actually a true championship game. Washington, by virtue of playing one less game than Oregon, had one loss instead of two and finished first in the Pac-12 North with a 3-1 record, ahead of 3-2 Oregon. However, the same COVID-19 problem that prevented UW from playing Oregon on the final weekend of the regular season will also keep the Huskies out of the Pac-12 Championship as well, so the Ducks will take their place.
Oh, and don’t ask 4-1 Colorado how they feel either. Despite having a better record than both the Huskies and the Ducks, Colorado won’t even get a chance to play for a Pac-12 title because they play in the same division as USC, and their game against the Trojans being canceled because of COVID problems in the Trojans program. The Pac-12 could’ve easily adjusted the rule here and let Colorado play, but since when do we rely on the Pac-12 for rational decisions?
Ok, now to the game.
The good thing about getting Oregon vs USC is that we get *by far* the two most talented teams in the conference to match up. Both have been very inconsistent as well. USC has needed a score in the final minute to win three of its five games, so the Trojans easily could have a loss or more. Oregon has lost two in a row by a combined seven points.
Oregon battered Kedon Slovis a year ago in the Coliseum, sacking him three times and forcing three interceptions as well. The Ducks haven’t been as dominant on that side of the ball this year, but the pass defense has still been superb, only allowing five touchdowns through the air all season. That will be a popcorn-worthy matchup against the elite USC receiving core.
On the other side, this will be the most talent Tyler Shough will have faced so far in his college career. After a hot start to his college career, the redshirt sophomore struggled with his accuracy against Cal, completing barely over half of his passes and his lowest yards per attempt since week one. After a week off, I’m sure we’ll see a bounce-back version of Shough against a USC defense that struggled at times this year.
THE PICK: This is the toughest game to choose. Two talented and wildly inconsistent teams with young quarterbacks. USC’s late-game magic runs out and the Ducks snag the Pac-12 crown for the second straight year. OREGON.
Big Ten Championship Game: No. 14 Northwestern vs No. 4 Ohio State(-21)
Saturday, Dec 19. 12 p.m. ET
A lot less drama in this one. Ohio State will be going for its fourth straight Big Ten title and the Buckeyes will be favored by three touchdowns. The Big Ten tweaked its qualifications for the Big Ten title game just to get the Buckeyes in, and the Buckeyes will reward the conference by beating Northwestern and clinching its second straight CFP appearance.
While everything on paper says blowout, I think it will be closer than people think. Northwestern hasn’t had any great wins this year (three wins by a touchdown or less, and another by ten), but the Wildcats have been in every game. The defense has been really good, but might have too much on their plate against Justin Fields and Co.
Remember, a much better Buckeyes team trailed Wisconsin 21-7 at the half in last year’s championship game.
While the Ohio State defense hasn’t been as good as last year, the Buckeyes should adjust and make some plays on a very conservative Northwestern offense. Expect Ohio State to pull away in the second half with a turnover and some Justin Fields magic.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE.
Big 12 Championship Game: No. 6 Iowa State vs No. 10 Oklahoma(-5.5)
Saturday, Dec 19. 12 p.m. ET
Iowa State won the first matchup between these two way back on October 3, outsourcing Oklahoma 24-13 in the second half en route to a 37-30 comeback win. OU QB Spencer Rattler was good, but threw a late interception that crushed the Sooners’ chances. ISU RB Breece Hall tore up the Oklahoma defense for 139 yards and two touchdowns.
I expect a very different game this time out.
Oklahoma has been a different animal from when ISU last saw them. The Sooners have won every game since then outside of the overtime thriller vs Texas by multiple scores. The Sooners have been the best defense in the Big 12 against the run, passing efficiency, and sacks. They haven’t allowed more than 300 yards in any of their last three games. DC Alex Grinch has done a wonderful job transforming a defense that was so terrible a year ago.
Oh and how about that Oklahoma offense? Yeah…… they lead the Big 12 in scoring offense and passing offense. Spencer Rattler has been much better over the second half of the season, he’s thrown 11 touchdowns and just two picks over his last five games, and he has an absolute rocket of a right arm.
Things have been trending in the other direction on the Iowa State side. Breece Hall has ran for under 100 yards in his last two games. We’ll see if he gets a chance to get going against Oklahoma again, unless ISU falls behind big early. Thankfully for ISU, Brock Purdy has been on fire in his last three contests, completing nearly 80 percent of his passes and 7 touchdowns without an interception.
I don’t think that will be enough. Oklahoma has been more impressive over the latter half of the season, and looks more like the team we expected them to be preseason. I don’t buy Iowa State’s No. 6 ranking for a single second.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA
ACC Championship Game: No. 2 Notre Dame vs No. 3 Clemson(-10.5)
Saturday, Dec 19. 4 p.m. ET
Congratulations Notre Dame! Not only did you make the conference championship in your first ACC season, but you get to play Clemson not once, but twice in one season! Isn’t that fun?
All jokes aside, it’s not often you see a 10-0 No. 2 team as a 10.5-point underdog in a conference championship game, but you also don’t come across a Trevor Lawrence often either, so it balances out.
This was arguably the game of the year in college football the first time these two met in South Bend, and we should get another fantastic game. Trevor Lawrence will get his first crack against the Notre Dame defense that has been the best in college football this season. DJ Uiagalelei shredded the Irish for 439 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions the first game.
The biggest question on the Clemson offense isn’t if we’ll see good QB play, but if Travis Etienne will make an impact. The two-time ACC POY was erased to the tune of 28 yards against the Notre Dame defense the first time out. Will the threat of Lawrence open up running lanes for Etienne or will the Irish suffocate the senior again?
On the other side, Ian Book HAS to play as he did in South Bend, and I think he will. He has managed to protect the football and open up explosive plays in the passing game. He CANNOT fumble at the one-yard-line like he did last time. Trevor Lawrence is not forgiving.
Clemson is probably really happy they have real competition in the ACC title game for the first time in four years. The combined score of the last three years is 142-30, or an average of a 47-10 Clemson victory. This one will be much closer than that.
I think both teams get into the College Football Playoff if the game stays close. I don’t see how Texas A&M can make a case when they can’t even play in their own conference championship game, and if they did make it they would face Alabama who battered the Aggies by 28 earlier this year. No thanks. If the game isn’t close, the what-if scenario begins, but I don’t think that will happen.
THE PICK: CLEMSON
SEC Championship Game: No. 7 Florida vs No. 1 Alabama(-17)
Saturday, Dec 19. 8 p.m. ET
Ah yes, the nightcap. The de-facto winner-takes-Heisman game. I would like to take this sentence to thank the committee for bending over backwards to keep Florida alive for the CFP by dropping the Gators a whole one spot for losing at home to an unranked LSU team starting a true freshman for his first career start this past weekend. In the name of fairness right guys?
Ok, to the game now.
As pretty of a matchup as this looks on paper, I have a nagging feeling that it won’t be close. Alabama is clearly the best team in the country. Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, and Najee Harris will all get into the Heisman conversation. The Alabama defense hasn’t allowed more than 20 points since the first half against Georgia in mid-October. Losing Jaylen Waddle was tough, but the offense hasn’t missed a beat without him.
In summary, this is the most complete team in the country. The closest game they played was a 15-point win against Ole Miss. They have won four of their last five by 40 points or more. That is just absurd.
We are going to need to see Heisman-level play from Kyle Trask, maybe even more, for Florida to have a chance. Kyle Pitts will be healthy and ready to go. A turnover would be good for Florida, lucky for them the Crimson Tide leads the SEC in turnover margin.
A great performance from Trask, win or lose, might still be good enough to grab the Heisman, but that might depend on how the skill players on the other side look (I’m looking right at you DeVonta Smith)
This is going to be an awesome touchdown filled-game. I just don’t think Florida has enough to keep it within two touchdowns
THE PICK: Alabama.
Writer
-By: TJ Mathewson