The Fumble: What We Know and Don’t Know About the CFB playoffs

In some ways, writing about college football is an intricate guessing game, with more and more information revealed as the season goes along. Obviously, the beginning of the season has the fewest known facts about teams AND individuals, and much of analysis is simply factoring the new data that is received in with what is already known and developing predictions based on that knowledge. If this makes football analysis sounds like a math problem, it’s because it is, of a sort: ESPN has its “FPI,” which provides predictions of football games based on this sort of thing. Human brains try to do similar things, they’re just generally not as good at doing so. 

So what’s the point? Well, by this point in the season, there are a few things that we already know, and several things we still have yet to really learn. Today in the Fumble, instead of my normal categories, I want to look at what we already know, and what remains as unknown qualities. 

What We Know:

Alabama is back, and will be back in the playoff.

Until last year, it seemed that the only certain things in life were death, taxes, and Alabama in the playoff. Then LSU turned in one of the most dominant seasons we’ve seen in college football in a while, and the Crimson Tide found themselves third in the SEC. Since then, LSU has regressed mightily and Nick Saban’s team is back at number one with little doubt about their postseason destination. 

The Big 12 is out.

The top-ranked Big 12 school is currently Iowa State, at ninth. While that seems like they might be within striking distance, the Cyclones have two losses and will not make it in. The collapse of Oklahoma and Texas have virtually guaranteed that the conference will be left out of the playoff this year. 

Notre Dame is legit.

There is something of an asterisk next to this one, because we haven’t seen Notre Dame beat Clemson with Trevor Lawrence. But they have passed every test they’ve been given so far, and it’s difficult to see them getting left out of the playoff even if Clemson exacts their revenge in the ACC championship game. 

What We Don’t Know Yet

How will the committee handle Ohio State?

The fourth-ranked Buckeyes have appeared talented throughout their four games, and will have another chance to show their ability against Michigan State this week. But due to COVID cancellations, Ohio State appears in serious risk of not qualifying for the Big Ten Championship, which could deal a major blow to their chance at making the playoff. It will be a matter of waiting to see how it all plays out for the Buckeyes. 

Can Cincinnati make it to the playoff?

The Bearcats have received a fair amount of respect from the committee, and have a chance to get a ranked win against Tulsa this weekend. But there are still several obstacles for there to be the first-ever Group of Five team in the playoff, and things will have to play out perfectly. Ohio State somehow being disqualified would be a great start. 

Can Florida unseat Alabama?

The gators are lined up to be the Tide’s opponent in the SEC championship, and at the moment it looks like their only chance to make the playoff would be to win that game. A victory seems unlikely, but nothing is impossible. 

Not all of these questions will be answered this week, but we will gain some more data for predictions. Here’s to learning more this weekend.

Writer

-By: Alex Spieldenner