The Early Conundrum of the 2022 Quarterback Class

Oct 9

The 2022 NFL Draft class is posing the question, “Just because you are the worst team in football, are you obligated to take a quarterback?”

Since 2000, only six non-quarterbacks have made the walk to shake the commissioner's hand before anyone else. Twice in the 2000s, the Cleveland Browns opted to take a defensive end first overall a year after taking a quarterback high in the draft, Courtney Brown in 2000 after drafting Tim Couch the year prior, and standout Myles Garrett in 2017 after selecting Deshone Kizer in the 2nd round in 2016.

The Dolphins after going 1-15 in 2007 won the Chad Pennington sweepstakes in the offseason and decided to grab him protection in the form of a standout tackle prospect Jake Long. Pennington would have a career resurgence, leading the Dolphins back to the playoffs and winning comeback player of the year. The Chiefs also went a similar route in 2013, bringing in former first overall pick Alex Smith and taking Eric Fisher first overall. The final example was the Texans taking Jadeveon Clowney in 2014, Clowney one of the highest touted pass-rushing prospects in recent memory.

Quarterbacks have dominated the first overall position over the past four years, the idea of finding your franchise quarterback at any cost more important than ever. In 2019 the Arizona Cardinals, despite drafting Josh Rosen the year prior 10th overall, took Kyler Murray first overall. If you are bad enough to be first overall, you are expected and nearly obligated to take a shot at a franchise quarterback.

Is the supply of quarterbacks in the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft good enough to meet the demand of QB-hungry organizations vying for the next superstar signal-caller? With premium talent headlining the college ranks such as Oregon’s exceptional pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and Notre Dame’s super safety Kyle Hamilton, is there a gunslinger worth potentially missing out on a blue-chip prospect?

For a team such as the Houston Texans who are going through a complete long term rebuild and need help everywhere, is there a quarterback this year even worth taking over a player who can potentially change your defense? The Philadelphia Eagles will most likely be selecting high in the draft, whether it be with their own pick or one of the first-round picks they acquired over the offseason. With the defense in shambles, are any of these quarterbacks enough of an upgrade over Jalen Hurts, a player they selected just a season ago in the second round, to justify fixing a massive hole in the secondary?

So far, this quarterback class has not done enough to answer yes to answer any of the above questions, at least not compared to classes in the past. For the past two years, there have been top quarterbacks known coming into the college season. Trevor Lawrence was already written on a card for the first overall pick in the 2021 draft, the lucky team to grab him the only thing still to be decided on. While Joe Burrow captured the hearts of the football world, rising from relative unknown to college legend and first overall pick, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and Oregon’s Justin Herbert were still known commodities who most likely would’ve gone first. There isn’t really one of those guys who has established himself as that frontrunner to go first overall, at least not five weeks into the season.

There are intriguing quarterbacks in this class. There is undeniable talent of course, but each prospect comes with a lot of questions for them. North Carolina’s Sam Howell has struggled at times in his junior year, in a year where he really needed to improve on certain parts of his game.

There is a lot of intrigue in Howell, his arm is really nice and he can make big NFL level throws anywhere on the field and he’s willing to challenge the middle of the field a lot more this year, but there’s a lot of growing he still needs to do. North Carolina’s system uses a frustrating amount of RPOs, really taking any decision-making or field reading out of Howell’s hands. He is going to have a pretty big adjustment going into an NFL offense that will ask him to read the field a lot more. While his offensive line has been less than ideal, Howell puts himself in danger a lot by being generally frantic in the pocket. At times he gives off Carson Wentz vibes, running around the pocket like a chicken without its head. Howell is a good prospect, but nobody’s quite sure if he’s at that franchise quarterback level of prospect.

Another quarterback-needy fanbases hoped would take more strides this year is Oklahoma’s, Spencer Rattler. The former five-star quarterback and star of Netflix’s QB1: Beyond the Lights series has some immense talent. He can make throws that remind you of Patrick Mahomes. His arm talent is off the charts, able to effortlessly fling the ball down the field. He’s a big-time player when he’s on, and showed it down the stretch last year.

For Rattler, the problems were well known coming into the year. Yes, he had some of the highest highs in the class, but he also had some of the lowest lows as well. He lacked any real consistency at all, and it hasn’t really changed this season. Rattler has been very hot and cold this season, showing off the great arm while also frustrating viewers with head-scratching decision-making. Despite being a big arm quarterback, his downfield accuracy has been a lot more spotty this year compared to last. The sense of risk management hasn’t really developed yet for Rattler either. He has a ton of potential, he could be an amazing quarterback, but he could also be a monumental bust who turns the ball over a ton as well.

Malik Willis has made a great case for himself this season to be the top quarterback in this class. He has quickly become the darling of the internet, wowing fans with his big arm and great rushing ability. The sky's the limit when it comes to Willis. He has the ability to take over the league with his great deep ball and ability to extend plays, there is also a ton of risk as well. He is someone who goes for the big play a lot. Whether that’s airing it out deep downfield very often, or trying to extend the play as much as he can. This can lead to errors at the next level where the game is much faster and punishes bad decisions. Willis needs to show he can work within a system, and make the easy things look easier. It should be noted that while he is putting on an impressive show this season, the toughest defense he faced is Troy, a team that held the Liberty offense to only 21 points.

For Willis, he has to still prove that he can do more basic quarterback things. He has to show that he can drop back, make reads, and make accurate passes. Can he work the short game and the middle of the field? Will his highly entertaining playstyle hold up in the NFL? Can he transition from a very RPO-heavy system to more of a pro-style system, and will his offensive coordinator be able to cater to his specific set of skills? Is a team willing to risk the top selection on a quarterback who has questions to answer, development to do, and will be 23 by the time the season starts? The high ceiling is there.

Some other candidates making their case to be selected high are Nevada’s Carson Strong and Ole Miss’ Matt Corral. Carson Strong has been the underrated internet darling all summer and has a lot going for him. He has a big arm and throws a pretty deep ball. He’s generally accurate, but has shown some cases of missing throws and missing the mark on ball placement. The big problem is mobility. While these other quarterbacks can refine their games potentially, you can’t really make Strong more mobile. He’s pretty much a pure pocket passer and doesn’t offer a ton in terms of play extension.

Matt Corral has been the breakout star of the 2022 quarterback class, having a great college season so far. Corral had a lot of impressive moments last year, marred by some terrible decision-making. He turned the ball over 14 times, including a six-interception game against Arkansas and a five-interception game against LSU. This year Corral has 0 interceptions, taking much better care of the ball. Corral could potentially be the breakout star who does convince a team to take him high, but he has to prove it over the rest of a very long college football season.

The 2022 quarterback class has guys with talent. These aren’t just some scrubs who flat out can’t play. Guys such as Howell, Rattler, Willis, Strong, and Corral can have really good moments on film, they also have massive problems and question marks. There isn’t a guy in this class five weeks in that you can point to and say “He’s the guy! That’s the guy who’s going to change this franchise!” at least not with certainty. There is a very good shot that if you take one of these guys, they burn you and you lose your job. You could have a diamond, but you also could have a fast track to the unemployment line if they bust.

No player in the draft is a certainty, but teams can feel a lot more confident on a player hitting than some others. There are some seriously talented players on defense this year. Are you willing to pass on a guy like Thibodeaux or Hamilton who can help transform a defense for a lottery ticket at a franchise quarterback? So far into the season, I don’t know if you can. Just because you need a quarterback doesn’t necessarily mean you have to take one. There’s nothing worse than ending up with a mid-level quarterback while more promising and certain prospects appear in better classes to come just because you felt you needed to take one. The Jaguars went through the QB conundrum for years after taking Blake Bortles 3rd overall in 2014.