Tale of The Tape: Breakdown of NFL Draft Prospect Trey Lance

When talking about the top quarterbacks in this year's NFL Draft, we must not forget that there was a big three before Zach Wilson had his breakout season. The question entering the season was whether it was Justin Fields or Trey Lance that was the 2nd best quarterback. 

With others having great years, and North Dakota State only playing one “thrown-together” game due to Covid-19, it can be quite easy to forget about Trey. He had a great season in his own right in 2019, with 28 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. He rushed for 14 more touchdowns, leading the Bison to an FCS Championship in his lone season as a starter. How does Trey Lance stack up against what is becoming an increasingly crowded quarterback field? For that answer, we go to the tape.

Trey Lance has one of the highest ceilings in the entire draft class. He has a legitimate argument for the strongest arm this year. The ball flies out of his hands, and he can hit throws 50+ yards down the field with ease. He has good zip-on passes outside of the numbers. You don’t have to worry about the ball fluttering at all with Lance. He has some of the best arm talent I’ve ever seen. He throws well on the run and can make some insane throws.

Besides his bazooka of an arm, the other most exciting thing about Lance is his mobility. Lance is one of the best runners in this quarterback class and is a dangerous threat to take off when plays break down, or to keep it in the option game. He has great speed but also is a very tough runner. He’s not afraid to lower his shoulder and fight for extra yardage. His legs always have to be taken into account.

What surprised me most about Lance was how he was used at North Dakota State. As a big-armed running quarterback, you would think he would be operating mostly out of the shotgun. A good amount of the time, Trey Lance is operating under center, dealing off of play-action. He reminds me a lot of Ryan Tannehill when watching. A big athletic quarterback with a really good arm, who plays great off of play-action. I wouldn’t just saddle him under center of course, but it just further shows that Trey Lance has diversity in his game even at such a young age.

I think while his ceiling is as high as anyone’s in this class, Lance has a bit lower of a floor than Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. To start out with, there is of course a big transition in the level of competition for Lance. That transition to the NFL is hard enough for a quarterback playing at a top school but even harder for someone coming from the FCS. The game will be way faster, and Lance will have to adjust.

One thing I’d like to see Trey Lance do is get the ball out faster. I think a big reason that he holds onto the ball for a good amount of time is that he’s really trying to read the field. He just needs to keep steadily improving at going through progressions, and getting the ball out faster. I want to see him improve his feel for pressure as well. Lance is pretty calm and collected in the pocket, but sometimes can be a bit too calm and get sacked. That can come with more experience though.

Another area that I want to see Lance improve on is his deep ball accuracy. I wouldn’t call Lance an inaccurate quarterback, he has good overall accuracy, especially along the sidelines, but he can improve deep. He has such a great arm, but can sometimes be a tad bit inconsistent down the field. Once he gets the accuracy down, Lance will be scary. 

I don’t want to be too hard on Lance, because he is only 20 and had only one season of experience as a starter. I’d be willing to bet as a coach that I can work out his issues.

Overall, Trey Lance is an exciting prospect that I really wish had a shot to further prove himself this year. With great years from Wilson, Fields, and of course Lawrence, it can be easy to forget about Trey Lance. I believe that Lance has one of the highest ceilings in this entire class, and can be like a created player in Madden if he truly reaches his potential. He has a great arm, great mobility, and is more advanced at reading the field than you would first believe. There are some things he needs to work on, and a year sitting might do him well, but Trey Lance is certainly worth a look early in the first round.

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-By: Jacob Keppen