CFB: Next Season Breakout Teams from each Power Five Conference

Now that the college football coaching carousel has settled down (for the most part), it’s time to predict the breakout Power Five teams of 2021. Who is going to take the next step forward in development and success? Can someone pull off a jump to an NY6 Bowl win like Iowa State? Let’s take a look.

Big Ten: Wisconsin (4-3)

It was a choice between Iowa and Wisconsin for this spot, but I’ll go with the slightly more consistent Badgers. Wisconsin got hammered by COVID-19 right after their opening night beatdown of Illinois but never seemed to regain traction.

The Badgers missed three weeks, came back, beat down a struggling Michigan team, and then struggled against Northwestern, Indiana, and Iowa right after.

Among those seemingly stuck in the mud was freshman quarterback Graham Mertz. Mertz lit up Illinois in the opener with passing five touchdowns, but then threw a combined four scores to five interceptions the rest of the season. It’s hard to see the former four-star recruit continuing to struggle with inconsistent games in the 2021 season.

Backed by a strong running game and solid defense, I would expect Mertz and the Badgers to rebound nicely in 2021. Plus, it’d be a pretty fun battle for the Big Ten West between the Badgers and the Hawkeyes.

Big 12: Texas (7-3)

Thinking about this realistically, this comes down to two choices: Iowa State or Texas. I’ll probably end up regretting this, but I have to go with UT. The Longhorns have their new coach (Steve Sarkisian) and a roster that ranks as the fifth-most talented in college football, according to 247 Sports’ composite ranking. It practically screams breakout.

The Longhorns had the talent under Tom Herman last year but weren’t able to close out tight games (Oklahoma 45-56 in quadruple overtime, Iowa State 20-23, and TCU 31-33). They closed out 2020 on a high note, though, stomping Colorado in the Alamo Bowl. Now it’s time for Sark to put it all together, something Charlie Strong and Tom Herman failed to do.

The standard for Sark is always going to be beating Oklahoma, similar to how beating Ohio State is the standard for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. Lincoln Riley and Co. make it difficult, especially with how they looked in the Orange Bowl. But this Texas team has the talent to pull it off.

Sam Ehlinger leaves, and while that hurts Texas at QB, rising junior Casey Thompson showed what he’s got during the Alamo Bowl. Paired with sophomore RB Bijan Robinson (8.2 Y/C as a freshman in 2020), and leading receiver Joshua Moore (nine touchdowns), this Texas offense will be a blast to watch.

SEC: Ole Miss (5-5)

This might be the easiest pick of the bunch. Ole Miss had a new energy around them in 2020 under Lane Kiffin. While the defense was horrid, the offense was so fun to watch, especially with that Matt Corral - Elijah Moore connection.

While Moore departs for the NFL, Corral will return to what should still be an electric offense, looking to build off his 2020 campaign, where he threw for 3,337 yards, scoring 29 passing touchdowns, but threw 14 interceptions. He also rushed for 506 yards and added four touchdowns on the season.

Ole Miss pulled in the 19th-ranked recruiting class in 2021, including three four-star defensive backs that should help add depth in the secondary. We should see improvements overall on the defensive side of the ball in year two with Lane Kiffin at the helm.

ACC: North Carolina (8-4)

Expectations are sky-high in year three for Mack Brown and Sam Howell. While it’s going to be difficult to challenge Clemson for the ACC crown, a top-ten finish should be the expectation in Chapel Hill for 2021.

The Tar Heels lost Michael Carter and Javonte Williams to the draft, who combined for 28 touchdowns and over 2,000 yards out of the backfield. That’s a massive dropoff in production for whoever ends up getting those carries. That means the responsibility will fall onto Sam Howell to ball out in his junior season.

Howell, the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 in 2022, should be even better than the 30 TD-7 INT stat line he tossed in 2020. Along with the 14th-ranked recruiting class in the country, Mack Brown continues to put his stamp on the roster.

PAC-12: Arizona State (2-2)

Despite this being a bit of a homer pick, I wasn’t going to choose either of the teams in the Pac-12 Title Game (USC and Oregon), so I’ll go with ASU.

There’s a lot to like with the Sun Devils. We didn’t get to see the true growth of Herm Edwards in year three, thanks to all the massive COVID-19 problems ripping through the Sun Devils’ roster.

Arizona will see the return of junior QB Jayden Daniels, their two highly-graded PAC-12 running backs in the Pac-12 in Rachaad White and Deamonte Trayanum, and over 90 percent of their 2020 roster. There’s a lot of excitement for Daniels and the offense to break out with the young receiving core, as second-year OC Zak Hill will have a full season to work on this offense.

It’s going to be tough for the Sun Devils to compete with the talent of USC and Oregon. But if everything breaks right, competing for the Pac-12 South title should be the expectation in Phoenix.