CFB Early Conference Standings Prediction: Pac-12

Spring football is underway on many campuses across the country as the weather warms for summer, a refreshing consistent cycle of football after COVID-19 wrecked the spring practice schedule for these programs last spring. In this series, I’m going to give my early conference standings predictions for the power five conferences, starting out west with the Pac-12.

Let’s get into it!

Pac-12 North 

1. Oregon

Despite the questions at quarterback, the Ducks winning the Pac-12 North is an easy choice. Oregon has easily the most talented roster in the Pac-12 North, a handful of spots ahead of rival Washington in the 247 Composite Rankings. The Tyler Shough transfer stings a little, but senior Anthony Brown was solid in spots and incoming four-star freshman Ty Thompson should compete for the spot as well. It’ll help with RBs CJ Verdell and Travis Dye coming back, and a dynamic set of receivers with Johnny Johnson, Mycah Pittman, and Jaylon Redd.

Kayvon Thibodeaux will be exciting to watch in his junior season and should anchor a defense chalked full of blue-chip talent (Justin Flowe, Noah Sewell, and Dontae Manning) and should take a step up after an underwhelming 2020 season. The North is the Ducks division to lose, there’s too much talent to say otherwise.

2. Washington

Year one under Jimmy Lake wasn’t perfect, but a Pac-12 North division title (somewhat?) is a pretty good start. The Huskies will add five-star quarterback Sam Huard to the mix and should have a really good shot of winning the starting quarterback job from Dylan Morris. The Huskies will return 19 starters from the 2020 roster.

If Washington wants to overtake their rivals in Eugene for the north crown, they must find some consistency on offense, and losing WR Puka Nacua to BYU doesn’t help.

3. Stanford

The next four spots are pretty up in the air, so I’ll go with the trusted coach in David Shaw. The Cardinal won four consecutive games to end the 2020 season and had an incredibly chaotic schedule through trouble practicing and COVID issues due to Santa Clara County rules. Stanford needs to replace QB Davis Mills but will return RB Austin Jones, who was very solid both on the ground and through the air. The defense needs to improve but returns a majority on that side of the ball. This feels like the ceiling for Stanford, a clear step down in talent from the top two teams in the North. I’m projecting them to make it.

4. California

Cal has the benefit of returning QB Chase Garbers but will need to massively improve on offense to jump higher than this spot (averaged a hair over 20 points per game). It didn’t help that the Golden Bears only played in four games, and couldn’t get much consistency going. Fourteen starters return, but the program needs to fill out the secondary and offensive line. Justin Wilcox had a fantastic year in 2019, leading the program to an 8-5 record, but will need to show that 2020 was just a blip on the radar. 

5. Oregon State

The Beavers capped off an otherwise-underwhelming 2020 season with a rivalry win over Oregon. I still don’t know how I could rank the Beavers higher than this though. The roster is thin, the Beavs are losing Jermar Jefferson to the NFL, and the defense is still very suspect. The Beavers allowed over six yards a play last year, that number needs a massive jump to warrant any kind of consistent success in the conference.

6. Washington State

A full offseason with HC Nick Rolovich should be extremely beneficial to the Washington State Program. Jayden De Laura played extremely well in his freshman season and will need to be leaned on to win in the Pac-12, along with a loaded running back room. It’s pretty difficult to recruit to Pullman, and the defense struggles as a part of it. We’ll see what Rolovich can do with that unit here in year two, and has great potential to jump up a couple of spots in these rankings.

Pac-12 South

1. USC 

While I like Jayden Daniels over Kedon Slovis, I’ll give USC the overall roster edge over Arizona State, therefore the nod for the Pac-12 South crown. The Trojans signed a top-ten class and returned a two-year starter in Slovis under center. He’ll lose his top two targets out wide in Tyler Vaughns and Amon-Ra St. Brown but will have plenty of talent to step up. Drake Jackson will stand out on one of the Pac-12’s most talented defenses. If Clay Helton doesn’t hold this roster back with sloppy coaching, this Trojan team should be a slam-dunk for the top 15 in the country.

2. Arizona State

Ranking slightly under USC is Arizona State. While the ASU fans hate expectations for the program that routinely underwhelms in big games, there is a TON to like about Arizona State in 2021. The Sun Devils return junior Jayden Daniels, (in my opinion) the two best running backs in the Pac-12 in Rachaad White and Chip Trayanum, and nearly the entire receiving core. The Sun Devils only played four games but led the Pac-12 South in scoring defense (23.3) and the entire conference in scoring (40.3). A good chunk of that top defense returns and the Sun Devils will get to host USC. Mark your calendars.

3. Utah

If it’s not ASU in that No. 2 spot, it’ll be Utah. Kyle Whittingham knows a thing or two about winning in SLC, and after a down 2020 by his standards, the Utes will be back in the Pac-12 south race in 2021. The Utes landed a bevy of transfers on offense, Charlie Brewer and Ja’Quinden Jackson at QB, and TJ Pledger/Chris Curry at RB. There’s experience out wide with Britain Covey and Brant Kuithe and on the offensive line and defense. Expect a solid season from the Utes.

4. UCLA 

I’m starting to wonder when the make or break season is for Chip Kelly. The Bruins have yet to win more than four games with Kelly in charge, and most coaches who haven’t done that don’t usually make it to year four as head coach. Alas, Kelly sees the return of QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson along with most of the starting offense outside of RB Demetric Felton. The defense needs to improve (30.7 pts/g) and Kelly needs to start winning games, plain and simple. As the school recovers from the financial losses due to COVID-19, the coaching seat will get hotter.

5. Colorado

The Buffaloes were one of the best stories of the 2020 season. After Mel Tucker dipped for Michigan State, the Buffs seemed like they were in a state of disaster. New coach Karl Dorrell didn’t flinch, as he led the Buffs to a second-place finish in the Pac-12 South. I was ~this~ close to putting the Buffs above UCLA, but decided against it. Jarek Broussard returns to anchor the offense and should help whoever is under center. Can the Buffs improve on defense (31.7 pts/g)? Can they find balance on offense? These are all questions that need to be answered for the Buffs to ascend these rankings.

6. Arizona

You could place the Grand Canyon between Arizona and the rest of the Pac-12 South. Nothing showed how poor of a job Kevin Sumlin did constructing the roster better than Arizona State stomping the Wildcats 70-7 in the 2020 Territorial Cup. Both coaches (Sumlin and Herm Edwards) were hired prior to the 2018 season and took two polar opposite trajectories. New HC Jedd Fisch will have a ton of work to do to turn the Wildcats around. Hiring Don Brown as defensive coordinator is a good start, but much more is needed, and it will take time. That’s why the Wildcats earn this spot.

Writer

-By: TJ Mathewson