CFB Early Conference Standings Prediction: Big 12

Earlier this week, I touched on my thoughts for the early Pac-12 Conference Standings predictions. Today, I’ll touch on my early predictions for the Big 12. It should be an extremely interesting race at the top of the conference, so let’s get into it.

1. OKLAHOMA

The six-time reigning Big 12 champion Sooners hold the top spot in the early preseason predictions, and for good reason. The Sooners are returning an abundance of talent on both sides of the ball. Among those returning: QB Spencer Rattler, WR Marvin Mims, and seven other starters on an offense that again led the conference in scoring. Nine starters return from the conference’s third-ranked unit in scoring. In summary, the Sooners are loaded.

Rattler finished the 2020 season on fire, and a big reason to peg the Sooners atop the conference. After struggling out of the gate, throwing six touchdowns and four interceptions during a two-game losing streak in late September, Rattler and the Sooners caught fire. Rattler cut down on the turnovers (four interceptions during the eight-game win streak), the Sooners won 6/8 by two scores and beat the brakes off Florida in the Cotton Bowl 55-20. If that’s the Sooners team we get next year, that’s easily a top-five team.

2. IOWA STATE

The Cyclones lost a heartbreaker of a Big 12 Title Game to Oklahoma but made up for it with a Fiesta Bowl win over Oregon. Brock Purdy, Charlie Kolar, Big 12 DPOY Mike Rose, and Breece Hall all return. HC Matt Campbell inked an eight-year contract extension in February. Life is pretty good in Ames.

If it wasn’t for Oklahoma, the Cyclones would have their best shot to win the program’s first-ever Big 12 title. This might be one of the most talented teams they have ever had. Credit Campbell for keeping this group together and running it back in 2021.

3. TEXAS

How will Steve Sarkisian look in his first head coaching role since being fired from USC? Time will tell. The Longhorns were a talented mess under Tom Herman, where lack of detail and obsessive amounts of penalties held back the program in the four years under his control. Enter Sark, who coordinated one of the most efficient offensive seasons in college football history and whose offense swept the major offensive awards in 2020 while leading the Crimson Tide to a National Championship.

Out from under the umbrella of Nick Saban, Sark has to deal with the loss of senior QB Sam Ehlinger, who started 43 games over the course of his career but returning is stud RB Bijan Robinson. The roster ranks as the fifth-most talented in all of college football, per the 247 Talent Composite Rankings. This third-place finish is expected to be the bare minimum for Sark in year one.

4. TCU

The Horned Frogs have a lot to be excited about in 2021. QB Max Duggan should take a big leap in his third season under center, after only throwing for ten touchdowns as a sophomore in 2020. The rest of the roster has plenty of depth, Kendre Miller, Zach Evans, and Darwin Barlow anchor the RB room, and WR Quentin Johnston out wide. Much of the defense returns as well, building off a strong 2020 season. I’m not sure if this team gets past eight wins, but they should be very fun to watch.

5. OKLAHOMA STATE

While Mike Gundy has always put together solid teams, how he puts together his team in 2021 will be interesting. The main catalyst of the offense the last two years, Chuba Hubbard, is off to the NFL. Spencer Sanders has got to show some improvement in 2021, throwing 30 touchdowns and 19 interceptions in his first two years as a Cowboy. If not him, maybe Gundy will turn to highly-rated sophomore Shane Illingworth. The defense might take a slight step back from its 2020 production (23.5 pts/g) but will remain solid. Now about beating Oklahoma……..

6. WEST VIRGINIA

The Mountaineers capped off a 6-4 2020 season with a Liberty Bowl win over Army. Much returns to the WVU offense, RB Leddie Brown, and four of the top five pass catchers. The Mountaineers will need more stability under center, whether it be from Jarret Doege or Garrett Greene. If the team wants to emerge higher than this No. 6 spot, it’ll need another solid season from its defense, which led the conference in scoring last season. It doesn’t help that star corner Dreshaun Miller transferred to Auburn in the offseason.

7. KANSAS STATE

The return of Skylar Thompson and the further emergence of RB Deuce Vaughn should boost the Wildcats offense in 2021, along with Chabastin Taylor, Malik Knowles, and Phillip Brooks returning out wide. The defense struggled mightily last year and will need to see some improvement after allowing over 32 pts/g last season, led by senior DB Jahron McPherson or senior LB Cody Fletcher. I have a hard time finding a reason to rank them any higher than this.

8. TEXAS TECH

2021 is the tipping point for Matt Wells. He’s 8-14 in his first two seasons in Lubbock and could get the boot if there isn’t a substantial improvement. The Red Raiders return Henry Colombi under center, with the addition of Tyler Shough through the transfer portal, and All-Big 12 receiver Erik Ezukanma and running back SaRodorick Thompson. Add on TCU transfer T T.J. Storment and the Red Raiders might find some consistency on offense. Defense? Well, we know how that usually goes.

9. BAYLOR

It’s a tough situation in Waco. Although the Bears made a splash hiring of OC Jeff Grimes away from BYU, Baylor lost QB Charlie Brewer to Utah in the transfer portal. With a full offseason, maybe we can see some improvement on the defensive side of the ball like Aranda had at LSU. Plenty of the two-deep returns on both sides of the ball, so work needs to be done.

10. KANSAS

I don’t even need to address much here. HC Les Miles was fired and AD Jeff Long stepped down after allegations of sexual harassment during Miles’ time at LSU. They haven’t won more than three games since 2009. They might stay in this spot for another decade.

Writer

-By: TJ Mathewson