Expectations for Mack Brown weren’t very high when he was hired for his second stint at North Carolina following the 2018 season. He had been out of coaching since 2013 and had last won a conference title in 2009 with Colt McCoy at Texas, and lost at least four games in each of his final four years. From 1988-1997, UNC went 69-46-1 under Brown with three 10-win seasons and six bowl appearances, good but nothing spectacular.
Does this second stint have a chance to be better than his first and challenge Clemson for the ACC crown?
Everyone who watched Clemson demolish Miami 42-17 on Saturday came away with the same conclusion: Miami is nowhere near ready to challenge Clemson. The No. 7 ranking for the Hurricanes was generous, given the Hurricanes soft early schedule and lack of other conferences playing allowing the Hurricanes to shoot up the poll into the top-ten with their best win coming against a 1-3 Louisville team.
Now we look at the most recent AP poll and there is North Carolina sitting at No. 5 after a shootout win 56-45 against then-No.19 Virginia Tech. This is the first time UNC has been ranked this high since 1997 in Brown’s first stint. The Tar Heels rolled up over 656 yards of offense, produced explosive play after explosive play, and led by two touchdowns most of the way through. UNC stays undefeated and, barring an upset as the Tar Heels will be favored in every game until then, will face Notre Dame in a huge showdown on November 27. Presuming favorites win out, that will be for who plays Clemson in the ACC title game.
Is UNC up to the task of challenging Clemson? It’s a complicated answer.
In the short term? I don’t think so. I think there’s a gap between Clemson and the rest of the country right now, and yes that includes the SEC (Did you watch Alabama’s defense against Ole Miss on Saturday?). The only team to beat the Trevor Lawrence-led Tigers since Lawrence became the starter in 2018 was the 15-0 Joe Burrow-LSU Tigers in the national championship last year, a team that is talked about as one of the best to ever play.
Who was the next closest team to knocking off the Tigers? That would be North Carolina. A failed 2-pt conversion in that 21-20 nailbiter of a game in Chapel Hill was all that stood between a win for Mack Brown against the No. 1 Tigers, a loss that likely would’ve kept Clemson out of the CFP. While that result can’t be used to compare exactly where the two programs are this year, it’s a data point to look at.
To beat this Clemson team, as LSU showed, it takes matching an absurd amount of talent across the board. Matching Trevor Lawrence with 2020 No. 1 pick Joe Burrow and 13 other draftees across the board, not even counting those expected to be drafted in the next two years (Ja’Marr Chase and Derek Stingley Jr.). That’s just how good Clemson has been.
Can we draw some similarities between LSU and current UNC? It might be a stretch, but we can try.
It starts with the QB. Sam Howell is in year two under center and is taking that second-year jump you expect from star quarterbacks. He’s completing 68 percent of his throws and is averaging over nine yards an attempt. He shredded Virginia Tech with three touchdowns and five incompletions on Saturday. As one of the top recruits in the country and the most important one to commit to the Tar Heels under Mack Brown, he’s lived up to the hype.
Michael Carter and Javonte Williams are two dynamic backfield options for Howell to hand the ball off to. The two have split carries and both average over six ypc (Carter is currently at an absurd 10.3 ypc). Out wide, Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome are two excellent options for Sam Howell to pick apart the opposing defense. The offense is explosive on all levels.
The defense is going to be something we keep our eyes on the rest of the season. After two solid performances vs Syracuse and Boston College, the Tar Heel defense was gashed by Virginia Tech to the tune of 495 yards, 260 of that on the ground.
Realistically, North Carolina is probably not good enough yet to challenge Clemson. While that game last year was close, it was on-brand with Trevor Lawrence’s struggles to start the 2019 season. As of right now, Lawrence is playing as well as we have ever seen.
Clemson has consistently ranked above UNC in the 247Sports recruiting rankings, and would take a few more cycles at the current pace (UNC is ranked 13th in the 2020 rankings, Clemson 3rd) to even start talking about the talent levels evening out.
The November 27 game against Notre Dame will answer more questions about UNC than any game against Clemson would. I’m excited to watch Sam Howell and these weapons versus that loaded ND defense. For our sake, let’s hope both those teams stay in the top ten.
Writer
-By TJ Mathewson