Entering the 2021 season, the ACC is shaping up to be possibly the most interesting conference in all of college football. Last year five teams reached the 8 win mark, and even with Notre Dame dropping back to independent status, there are a ton of intriguing teams that can make an impact. There’s a good mix of established stars and up-and-coming stars waiting in the wings to replace the old guard. Here are the top five breakout candidates in the ACC.

1. Devin Leary, QB North Carolina State

Devin Leary was recruited to be the next star quarterback to join the proud lineage at North Carolina State. Jacoby Brissett, Russell Wilson, and future Hall of Famer Philip Rivers headline the proud heritage of Wolfpack products at quarterback, and Leary can be the next one in that line. 

A record-breaker in New Jersey, Leary started to really come into his own in 2020. As a sophomore, he improved across the board from 2019, with 890 passing yards and 8 touchdowns in only 4 games. Leary was accurate, boasting a 60% completion rate, as well as smart with the ball, only throwing two interceptions. A leg injury derailed a white-hot Leary, but with nearly all of his offensive weapons returning, look for the Leary train to get back on the tracks in 2021.

2. Lyn-J Dixon, RB Clemson

It’s rare to point to a fourth-year player as a breakout candidate. Usually, younger players finally getting their opportunity to show their talent are the ones hand-selected by the media to break out. Lyn-J Dixon has been patiently waiting for an opportunity to show out, and with first-round running back Travis Etienne off to the NFL, Dixon is looking to make an impact. 

As a backup, Dixon has been extremely productive for the Tigers, his 6.6 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns showing his knack for the big play. It will be a new-look offense this year for Dabo Swinney and don’t be surprised if Dixon is one of the featured players.

3. Khafre Brown, WR North Carolina State

To say that North Carolina lost some weapons would be an understatement. Not only did the program lose two 1,000 yard rushers in Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, and top receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome are also both off to the NFL. 

There is a plethora of touches available for the new crop of Tar Heels, and an opportunity to work with one of the best quarterbacks in the game in Sam Howell. Sophomore Khafre Brown looks keen to take the lead in the wide receiver room just as his older brother Dyami, a two-time 1,000-yard receiver last year, did the past two years. Khafre Brown led the North Carolina wide receiver room in yards per catch last year with 22.5 yards a reception and looks to be a featured weapon for the Heisman hunting Howell.

4. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Georgia Tech

It was always going to be a tough unfolding transition for Georgia Tech away from the triple option. The team had to change not only an offense but an identity that was synonymous with Yellow Jacket football. Georgia Tech looks to keep progressing in their program rebuild in 2021, and they might have the help of a breakout star in Jahmyr Gibbs.

On a lowly 3-7 team, true freshman Jahmyr Gibbs was one of the lone bright spots. Despite not being given the full keys to the offense, the former four-star recruit out of Dalton Georgia was productive as an all-purpose back. With only 89 carries Gibbs managed 460 yards, good for 5.2 yards a pop. More impressively, Gibbs caught 24 passes for 303 yards and three touchdowns. Gibbs is electric with the ball in his hands and can be the next star running back in the ACC.

5. Lawrance Toafili, RB Florida State

There’s one thing Florida State does really well, and it’s running the football. The Seminoles have underachieved and flat out struggled at times over the past few years, and last year was no exception. Florida State began the Mike Norvell era with a 3-6 record. One diamond in the rough that was the 2020 Florida State season was the run game. The Seminoles averaged 5.2 yards a carry, good for fourth in the ACC. That trend looks to continue next year with an even bigger role for Lawrance Toafili.

Freshman running back Toafili was one of the most prolific big-play threats in the entire country. While his workload was small with only 37 carries, the former four-star recruit made the most of his carries with 356 yards. That’s right. Toafili averaged 9.6 yards a carry. Any time he touched the ball, he was likely to rip off a big run. There are other mouths to feed in the Seminoles backfield, but Toafili’s talent might be too undeniable to give a bigger role moving forward.

Writer

-By: Jacob Keppen

For this spring preview series, I’ve covered the Pac-12, Big Ten, and Big 12. Today, I will be giving my early conference standings predictions for the ACC. Let’s get into it.

ACC ATLANTIC

1. Clemson

You know your program has entered the stratosphere of all-time great programs when you can lose a talent like Trevor Lawrence and be just fine the following year. DJ Uiagalelei has big shoes to fill and the talent to do so as we saw in his two 2020 starts. The young quarterback gets a boost with Justyn Ross opting to return to Clemson in 2021 while he also tries to boost his draft profile after struggling with injuries. Huge question marks stand at running back and in the secondary, thanks to Travis Etienne departing for the NFL and the secondary struggling mightily in the CFP Semifinals. A returning strength? The defensive line, manned by two star sophomores Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee, and another top-five recruiting class.

2. Boston College

The dropoff in this division is pretty stark, but don’t take away from what Jeff Hafley has done in his only year in Chestnut Hill. A 6-5 record with one-score losses to both North Carolina and Clemson is a pretty good start. The Eagles lose star TE Hunter Long but return two other key pieces from a much-improved passing attack with QB Phil Jurkovec and WR Zay Flowers. The defense struggled in 2020 and will have to deal with losing two of its best players, LBs Max Richardson and Isaiah McDuffie. A lot of work needs to go into the defense and finishing games. A much easier 2021 schedule should help.

3. NC State

There’s a lot to like with this NC State roster, especially off an 8-4 2020 season with QB Devin Leary sidelined for most of it. He and much of the roster returns healthy, 17 starters to be exact, and ready to go for ‘21. Leary, who tossed eight touchdowns in four games before breaking his leg, has to be thrilled that his leading receiver Emeka Emezie (738 yards, five touchdowns) is taking his extra year of availability and returning to school. The defense, while solid in ‘20, loses second-team All-American DT Alim McNeill and has to find consistency in the secondary after injuries ravaged the group in 2020.

4. Florida State

Will we finally see some progress from the Noles? Every season since Jimbo Fisher left after the 2017 season, Florida State has been a mess. Mike Norvell was dealt a tough hand having his first season in Tallahassee disrupted by COVID-19, and a full offseason of workouts and in-person meetings should do wonders. McKenzie Milton transfers in from UCF and will be one of the ACC’s best quarterbacks if he can return to pre-injury form. If he can’t go, Jordan Travis played well in spurts and Chubba Purdy was a top recruit. Adding in Auburn transfer DJ Williams and Kansas transfer Andrew Parchment (829 yards and seven touchdowns in 2020), along with a smattering of transfers on the defensive side as well, and there’s an injection of the new flavor on both sides. Improving the offensive line will be a must as well, helping with the addition of FIU transfer Devontay Love-Taylor. Add on a top-25 recruiting class and optimist flows through the Florida panhandle.

5. Louisville

The Cardinals were a team I was pretty disappointed in for their 2020 performance. The team struggled with close losses, turnovers, and inconsistent play from Malik Cunningham. He turned the ball over too much last year (12 INT). While Cunningham gets a good portion of his offensive line back, he loses his best skill players to the NFL: RB Javian Hawkins and WRs Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick. The defense was solid at times in 2020, but must improve in the trenches, force more turnovers and be more consistent. 

6. Wake Forest 

There’s good reason to move the Demon Deacons higher than this spot, but I’ll keep them here for now. The offense should be amongst the ACC’s best in 2021, after scoring over 35 points a game last year and returning quarterback Sam Hartman and his top three receivers (Jaquarii Roberson, Donavon Greene, and Taylor Morin). The team doesn’t need to get better on the ground after averaging under four yards a carry, and it doesn’t help Kenneth Walker transferred to Michigan State, leaving Christian Beal-Smith as the clear-cut No. 1 back. The Demon Deacons also need to replace star DL Boogie Basham. Like Louisville, there’s plenty of room for the Deacs to move up.

7. Syracuse

The Orange REALLY struggled in 2020. How does Dino Babers get back on track? Start by scoring some more points, an area in which ‘Cuse had trouble with (17.8 PPG). There’s competition under center with MSU transfer Garrett Shrader and returning starter Tommy DeVito. RB Sean Tucker and WR Taj Harris also return. Other than that, I don’t find much reason to rank the Orange anywhere but right here at the bottom.

ACC COASTAL

1. North Carolina

It’s a razor-thin margin at the top of the ACC Coastal, but I’m giving the edge to North Carolina. Sam Howell is one of my favorite players to watch in all of college football, and he is joined by a very talented roster around him. So talented that I’m still ranking them first despite Howell losing his top four skill players: RBs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, and WRs Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown. On top of that, star linebacker Chazz Surratt also heads off to the NFL. Mack Brown has built out this roster with three strong recruiting classes and should see this team blossom in what should be Howell’s final season in Chapel Hill.

2. Miami

The health of D’Eriq remains the biggest question for the Hurricanes after their star QB tore his ACL in December, and why I ranked the Hurricanes lower than the Tar Heels. The ‘Canes return a ton of offensive skill talent: RBs Cam’Ron Harris, Donald Chaney, and Jaylan Knighton, along with WRs Mike Harley, Mark Pope, Dee Wiggins, and Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo. The offensive line, despite being a struggle, returns most of its production as well. The defense must get better and lose Quincy Roche and Jaelen Phillips to the NFL. The addition of a 12th-ranked recruiting class and Georgia transfer Tyrique Stevenson in the secondary should help.

3. Pitt

The Panthers had to be thrilled when QB Kenny Pickett decided to return for a fifth season, keeping some stability under center. Pitt has a star in Jordan Addison out wide and also returns its leading rusher, Vincent Davis. The Panthers struggled overall producing yards on offense and might have to turn to someone new to find a spark. Improvement on the offensive line would help, but that unit lost C Jimmy Morrissey to the draft. The defense was awesome in 2020 but loses pass rushers Patrick Jones II and Rashad Weaver and safety Damar Hamlin. Much optimism still remains for the group, but this is as high as I’ll rank them.

4. Virginia Tech

The reason I didn’t rank VT over Pitt was the loss of QB Hendon Hooker (nine passing touchdowns, nine rushing touchdowns) to the transfer portal. Him along with standout RB Khalil Herbert and LT Christian Darrisaw were the engine that made the VT offense go. That is a lot of productions to put on the shoulders of now-QB1 Braxton Burmeister. Eight starters return on defense, but still, some holes to fill with LB Rayshard Ashby, S Divine Deablo and DL Jarrod Hewitt, and Justus Reed all departing. Allowing over 32.0 pts/game won’t cut it.

5. Virginia

Virginia really has an upward battle to face in this division, but there is still a lot to like about this roster. Brennan Armstrong showed flashes under center and led the Virginia offense to score over 30 pts/game. His offensive line returns along with a strong set of skill players in RB Wayne Taulapapa and WRs Lavel Davis Jr. and Billy Kemp IV. The secondary was torched in 2020 but adds Louisville transfer Anthony Johnson to a group that ranked 123rd in passing yards allowed, while also retooling the entire linebacking core, who lost Zane Zandier, Matt Gahm, and Rob Snyder to the draft.

6. Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets showed a little improvement at times last year, but overall the group still struggled. Jeff Sims showed flashes under center but turned the ball over way too much (13 INT). The defense struggled (36.8 pts/game) and needs a lot of improvement. The schedule for Georgia Tech is brutal too: Notre Dame, Georgia, Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami. Yeesh, that seems like a tall task to measure improvement. We shall see.

7. Duke

The offense was in need of a shakeup after averaging barely over 5.0 yards/play in 2020. Chase Brice transferred out, so it’s between Gunnar Holmberg and Luca Diamont for the starting job. It should help that the group returns leading rusher Mataeo Durant and most of the offensive line. The defense also has a lot of questions to answer, a unit that allowed 38.1 pts/game while losing multiple starters. Not much for me to rank them anywhere but here.

Writer

-By: TJ Mathewson

Expectations for Mack Brown weren’t very high when he was hired for his second stint at North Carolina following the 2018 season. He had been out of coaching since 2013 and had last won a conference title in 2009 with Colt McCoy at Texas, and lost at least four games in each of his final four years. From 1988-1997, UNC went 69-46-1 under Brown with three 10-win seasons and six bowl appearances, good but nothing spectacular. 

Does this second stint have a chance to be better than his first and challenge Clemson for the ACC crown?

Everyone who watched Clemson demolish Miami 42-17 on Saturday came away with the same conclusion: Miami is nowhere near ready to challenge Clemson. The No. 7 ranking for the Hurricanes was generous, given the Hurricanes soft early schedule and lack of other conferences playing allowing the Hurricanes to shoot up the poll into the top-ten with their best win coming against a 1-3 Louisville team.

Now we look at the most recent AP poll and there is North Carolina sitting at No. 5 after a shootout win 56-45 against then-No.19 Virginia Tech. This is the first time UNC has been ranked this high since 1997 in Brown’s first stint. The Tar Heels rolled up over 656 yards of offense, produced explosive play after explosive play, and led by two touchdowns most of the way through. UNC stays undefeated and, barring an upset as the Tar Heels will be favored in every game until then, will face Notre Dame in a huge showdown on November 27. Presuming favorites win out, that will be for who plays Clemson in the ACC title game.

Is UNC up to the task of challenging Clemson? It’s a complicated answer.

In the short term? I don’t think so. I think there’s a gap between Clemson and the rest of the country right now, and yes that includes the SEC (Did you watch Alabama’s defense against Ole Miss on Saturday?). The only team to beat the Trevor Lawrence-led Tigers since Lawrence became the starter in 2018 was the 15-0 Joe Burrow-LSU Tigers in the national championship last year, a team that is talked about as one of the best to ever play.

Who was the next closest team to knocking off the Tigers? That would be North Carolina. A failed 2-pt conversion in that 21-20 nailbiter of a game in Chapel Hill was all that stood between a win for Mack Brown against the No. 1 Tigers, a loss that likely would’ve kept Clemson out of the CFP. While that result can’t be used to compare exactly where the two programs are this year, it’s a data point to look at. 

To beat this Clemson team, as LSU showed, it takes matching an absurd amount of talent across the board. Matching Trevor Lawrence with 2020 No. 1 pick Joe Burrow and 13 other draftees across the board, not even counting those expected to be drafted in the next two years (Ja’Marr Chase and Derek Stingley Jr.). That’s just how good Clemson has been.

Can we draw some similarities between LSU and current UNC? It might be a stretch, but we can try.

It starts with the QB. Sam Howell is in year two under center and is taking that second-year jump you expect from star quarterbacks. He’s completing 68 percent of his throws and is averaging over nine yards an attempt. He shredded Virginia Tech with three touchdowns and five incompletions on Saturday. As one of the top recruits in the country and the most important one to commit to the Tar Heels under Mack Brown, he’s lived up to the hype.

Michael Carter and Javonte Williams are two dynamic backfield options for Howell to hand the ball off to. The two have split carries and both average over six ypc (Carter is currently at an absurd 10.3 ypc). Out wide, Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome are two excellent options for Sam Howell to pick apart the opposing defense. The offense is explosive on all levels.

The defense is going to be something we keep our eyes on the rest of the season. After two solid performances vs Syracuse and Boston College, the Tar Heel defense was gashed by Virginia Tech to the tune of 495 yards, 260 of that on the ground. 

Realistically, North Carolina is probably not good enough yet to challenge Clemson. While that game last year was close, it was on-brand with Trevor Lawrence’s struggles to start the 2019 season. As of right now, Lawrence is playing as well as we have ever seen.

Clemson has consistently ranked above UNC in the 247Sports recruiting rankings, and would take a few more cycles at the current pace (UNC is ranked 13th in the 2020 rankings, Clemson 3rd) to even start talking about the talent levels evening out.

The November 27 game against Notre Dame will answer more questions about UNC than any game against Clemson would. I’m excited to watch Sam Howell and these weapons versus that loaded ND defense. For our sake, let’s hope both those teams stay in the top ten.

Writer

-By TJ Mathewson