Looking At the CFP Top 10: Rivalry Week
Here we are, in the final week of the college football regular season. The buzz around the games is reaching a fever pitch, conference games are being scheduled and people everywhere are planning their football parties. It’s the best week of the year for so many people, and some of the best games in history have been played on this weekend (hello, Auburn kick six). It actually kind of speaks for itself; everyone who likes college football has a favorite rivalry that’s being played this weekend without me telling you about it. Just a word of advice: If your team happens to lose this week, give yourself two days to make any decisions and eat some leftovers from Thanksgiving to cope. Dealing with grief requires serious care.
With that said, sorry I don’t have a longer intro for the article this week, It’s been a wild week. I’ll have a bigger article for conference championship week.
Ohio State
CFP Ranking: 1
Last Week’s Ranking: 2
Week 11 Result: 28-17 win vs. #10 Penn State
In the biggest game of the season so far, the Buckeyes had their sloppiest game of the season and still won by 11 points. The team suffered three lost fumbles, one of which was a Justin Fields turnover as he dove to cross the goal line. But the best defense in the nation held up admirably, keeping the Nittany Lions from taking full advantage of the momentum and allowing the Buckeyes to eventually get back on track. Maybe the scariest moment of the game came later in the game when Justin Fields injured his ankle. Fortunately, the Ohio State faithful’s greatest fears were not realized and he is expected to be back for Michigan. There was speculation that a less-than-dominant victory over Penn State wouldn’t be enough to push the Buckeyes over LSU, but the committee was clearly convinced enough to put them back on top. Now it’s up to Ryan Day and his team to hold on to the spot.
LSU
CFP Ranking: 2
Last Week’s Ranking: 1
Week 11 Result: 56-20 win vs. Arkansas
LSU might be suffering from a bit of recency bias on the part of the committee, as they have been pushed out of the number one spot despite owning the most impressive win in the country over #5 Alabama. The problem remains LSU’s defense: They are outside of the top-40 in yards per play, yards per game and points per game allowed. Their offense is one of the premier offenses in the country, but what was expected to be the Tigers’ greatest strength has turned into the thing that hurts them the most, at least in the committee’s eyes.
Clemson
CFP Ranking: 3
Last Week’s Ranking: 3
Week 11 Result: No Game
Clemson has firmly staked a claim on the third spot in these rankings for the past three weeks, and I don’t think they’ll be moving up in the near future. What was widely considered to be the country’s best team coming into the season has been seriously hurt by a lack of impressive opponents in the second half of the season, and the Tiger’s struggles at the beginning of the season have led to them being almost entirely left out of the number-one conversation. Looks like they’re just going to have to prove their ability the hard way.
Georgia
CFP Ranking: 4
Last Week’s Ranking: 4
Week 11 Result: 19-13 win vs. Texas A&M
Can Georgia beat LSU? The Bulldogs play Georgia Tech this week, and no rivalry game is a safe bet. But Kirby Smart’s team isn’t making the playoff unless they can dethrone the country’s second-ranked team in the SEC Championship. That gives them the most difficult path of any of the contenders, excepting MAYBE Alabama (the Tide has a more difficult path but I doubt they’re a real contender at this point). This wouldn’t be the first time Georgia has thrown a wrench into the playoff conversation: it was only two years ago that they beat Alabama to create a situation where two SEC teams got in.
Alabama
CFP Ranking: 5
Last Week’s Ranking: 5
Week 11 Result: 66-3 win vs. Western Carolina
As I just said, Alabama is in a weird situation where it becomes less and less likely that they get in. Both Utah and Oklahoma are likely going to end the season with wins just as impressive as what the Tide has to offer against Auburn, and Nick Saban’s squad won’t have a conference championship to go along with it. Tua Tagavailoa’s injury also leaves the committee in a difficult situation where they can’t know just how effective the once-dominant offense from Tuscaloosa will be. In fact, their last game against Western Carolina, while nice to help Mac Jones tune-up, may have hurt them by taking away a serious opportunity to increase his sample size.
Utah
CFP Ranking: 6
Last Week’s Ranking: 7
Week 11 Result: 35-7 win vs. Arizona
Somebody pointed out to me that, contrary to what I wrote last week, Utah was probably not in the Northwest. I apologize to all residents of Utah for mis-regionalizing them during this difficult time in which their best opponent, Oregon, just lost, hurting their chance to jump Alabama significantly. If the Utes are able to beat Colorado this week, they’re probably still in decent shape to make a move after the conference championship, but having a top-15 win against a two-loss Oregon isn’t quite as persuasive as a top-10 victory over a team that would have otherwise lost only to Auburn.
Oklahoma
CFP Ranking: 7
Last Week’s Ranking: 9
Week 11 Result: 28-24 win vs. TCU
Last week I all but buried Oklahoma after their less-than-impressive ranking. But as Stewart Mandel pointed out on The Athletic, after climbing two spots and seeing Baylor climb five spots, the Sooners MIGHT still have a chance to get in. It would probably require Oregon beating Utah, at least that’s how it looks now. But the Sooners still aren’t dead. I’m not picking them, but at least there’s hope for Lincoln Riley’s team. Alternative scenario: What if Jalen Hurts ends up playing his former team in a non-playoff New Year’s 6 Bowl? That would be rather disappointing, but still one of the most exciting non-playoff games of the year.
Minnesota
CFP Ranking: 8
Last Week’s Ranking: 10
Week 11 Result: 38-22 win vs. Northwestern
The Gophers got back on track against Northwestern, and are now only a single victory away from what will essentially be a play-in game against the Ohio State Buckeyes. But don’t count out Wisconsin: They’re only losses remain to the top-ranked team and a look-ahead game against Illinois. Can P.J. Fleck lead his team to a Big Ten Championship and playoff spot? Probably not, but this season would be a massive success simply by making it to the conference championships.
Baylor
CFP Ranking: 9
Last Week’s Ranking: 14
Week 11 Result: 24-10 win vs. Texas
That’s currently the million-dollar question for the Bears is whether winning out would get them into the playoff, as they jumped five spots after a win against Texas and now seem like they might still have a chance. In their favor is that they are a one-loss Power 5 team that would have a win against a top-10 team (Oklahoma) and a conference championship. But the committee currently has them as the lowest-ranked Power 5 one-loss team, and has neither a smothering defense or a high-flying offense. There’s no one thing they do really well. But a victory over Oklahoma is still quite a statement, so stay tuned.
Penn State
CFP Ranking: 10
Last Week’s Ranking: 8
Week 11 Result: 17-28 loss vs. #1 Ohio State
Penn State put up a valiant effort against the top team in the country, and a few turnovers made it closer than it probably should have been, but the Nittany Lions never really had an opportunity to beat the Buckeyes. Sean Clifford was injured and Will Levis had to finish the game, further hampering an already-outclassed team. Fortunately, missing Clifford should be no issue this week against one of the weakest teams in the country, Rutgers. Now, finally, we may have the definitive, actual beginning of the non-contenders. I need to talk to whoever keeps moving the door.
All statistics, game results, and poll information according to sports-reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
-By: Alex Spieldenner
Writer/ Interviewer