NFL Conference Championship Picks
NFL Conference Championship Picks
Championship Sunday Picks: Bet Against Brady?
Just when you thought you couldn’t hate the New England Patriots anymore, they give you another reason to. Julian Edelman recently began selling an absolute abomination of a shirt on his website. The shirts feature the Pats logo with the words “Bet Against Us” written on it. Really? The Patriots are underdogs for the first time in the last 67 games Tom Brady has started, and why wouldn’t they be? The Chiefs are the #1 seed, they’re at home in the loudest stadium around, they’re led by the league’s most explosive QB, and Tom Brady hasn’t been exactly stellar in road playoff games. Following last week’s shellacking of the Chargers, Brady was the first to yank out the underdog card.
“Everyone thinks we suck,” Brady announced in a postgame interview with Tracy Wolfson. Once again, really? Sure, a lot of analysts went with the trendy pick in the Chargers last week (I was not one of the groups of people hoodwinked by LA’s performance against Baltimore), but trying to yank out the underdog card doesn’t work when you’ve now attended the last eight AFC Championship games. If that’s what it takes to motivate the winners of 5 Super Bowls since the turn of the century, participants in THIRTEEN (!) AFC title games in that period, and the AFC’s representatives in the last two championship games, then so be it. But it’s pathetic.
Now onto the picks.
#2 New England Patriots @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs showed MAJOR progress last week in dominating the Colts without relying on the arm of Patrick Mahomes. If the Chiefs can win by 18 against the hottest team in the league without their soon-to-be MVP throwing a TD pass, they can beat anyone. Mahomes didn’t play bad football by any means last weekend, but for once, the Chiefs didn’t need him to play out of his mind. After watching the Patriots shred the Chargers overhyped defense last week, KC is going to need a repeat performance out of their front seven to have a good shot at knocking off the veterans from Foxborough. Dee Ford and Justin Houston must hit home early and often and make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket. If they give him too much time, he’s going to shred their defense with his lightning-quick release and utilize his catching machine in James White.
The Chiefs defense is always worlds better at home, and holding New England under 25 points should be enough to advance to the big game. On the other side of the ball, Sammy Watkins is the X-factor for the Kansas City offense. In the past, Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt have been unstoppable in Chiefs-Patriots matchups, but with Hunt no longer on the roster, Belichick will turn his attention to eliminating the league’s fastest man. Watkins is a high-end number two in his own right (when healthy), so Mahomes must utilize him similarly to last week. Travis Kelce will get his, per usual, and if Watkins steps up, the Patriots defense won’t be able to focus their attention on one person. Spencer Ware returned to practice this week, and if he’s healthy, he and Damien Williams should be able to handle the workload in the run game. It won’t be warm in KC on Sunday, so both teams must focus on running the ball effectively and chewing the clock. Williams and Patriots rookie Sony Michel both had big games last week, and repeat performances would be a giant boost to their squads.
The Chiefs are a different team than the playoff choke artists of the past, and I’m sure Andy Reid would love nothing more than to send Belichick to an early offseason (early for New England, at least). While I hate to choose against the greatest QB-coach combo to ever see the gridiron, I don’t think the Patriots defense can effectively slow down Mahomes, and I don’t see Mahomes making the same mistakes that caused the Chiefs to fall down early against NE in their last matchup. Both teams will attempt to establish a ground game, but KC will eventually break away the same way they’ve been doing all season: behind the elastic arm of their second-year signal-caller. Brady and White will do their thing, but without Mahomes making any head-scratching mistakes, they won’t be able to keep up.
I’ll do what Julian Edelman wants us to do and bet against them… and they’ll likely make me regret it.
27-20, Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes: 322 yards, 2 TD
Damien Williams: 17 carries, 65 yards, TD
Tyreek Hill: 6 receptions, 82 yards, TD
Dee Ford: 4 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 TFL
Tom Brady: 298 yards, TD
Sony Michel: 22 carries, 97 yards, TD
James White: 8 receptions, 59 yards
Trey Flowers: 5 tackles, 1 sack
#2 Los Angeles Rams @ #1 New Orleans Saints
The Rams won’t come close to the 273 rushing yards they posted last week, but they’ll feed the backs again to try and keep Drew Brees off of the field. CJ Anderson comes up as big in important games as he does on the scale, and he should add another 80 yards on the ground to keep the Saints defense honest. Both teams have changed since their 80-point explosion midseason, and that’s good news for the Rams. Drew Brees has looked nothing like the MVP candidate he was for most of the season, being held under 205 yards in four of his last six games. There was some concern for how poorly he was tossing his deep balls last week, and two severe under throws cost his team 14 points. Michael Thomas had the biggest receiving game in Saints history against the Rams, repeatedly torching Marcus Peters, but with Aqib Talib back in the lineup, it won’t be easy pickings for the league’s reception leader. The Saints offensive line has been banged up in recent weeks, and they shouldn’t bother counting on a repeat shutout of Aaron Donald, the NFL’s most dominant player. The Eagles got to Drew Brees early last week, and it clearly rattled him, so Los Angeles must try and do the same. Ndamukong Suh was playing out of his mind last week, and with two terrors coming up the middle on every play, Brees is going to have to keep his head on a swivel.
Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are going to have their work cut out for them against a team that held Ezekiel Elliott to a mere 47 yards on 20 carries the week before. Even though the Saints offense has been slacking, their defense has been trending in the opposite direction. Cam Jordan leads the #2 run defense in football, and Marshon Lattimore and Co. have tightened it up on the back end. Eli Apple is still a liability in coverage, and Goff must attack him throughout the game. On the Rams defense, the linebackers are the weak point, and Sean Payton is one of the best coaches when it comes to targeting opposing weaknesses. Marcus Peters isn’t the same corner who was getting lit up over the first half of the season, so the Saints can’t rely on matchups toward his side. The Saints looked extremely vulnerable last week, and if the Rams can start off hot, they won’t relinquish a lead as the Eagles did.
-By: Micah Jimoh