Picks for the College Football Playoff Week 11
I wish we had a little more drama in the rankings this week, but when only one of the top four played on Saturday, there isn’t much. In fact, none of the top eight in the AP Top-25 moved from their ranking a week ago. So here’s what I’m going to do this week: We have our top four (Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Clemson). I’m going to look at the teams knocking on the door to the playoff and see how much of a chance they have of making the final four. Let’s take a look.
Texas A&M (5-1, #5 in the AP Poll)
Although the Aggies sport the No. 5 ranking in the AP Poll, it’s really hard to see a path to the playoff for them. First off, they are going to have trouble even winning their own division. That early-season blowout loss to Alabama puts the Aggies a game behind the Crimson Tide in the SEC West standings and with Bama holding the tiebreaker. Only two teams have ever made the playoff field without making their conference championship game (2016 Ohio State and 2017 Alabama), and this doesn’t seem like the year where one would be considered. That, along with being a fumble away from losing to both of their ranked opponents (#23 Auburn still awaits on December 5th) doesn’t paint this team as a true playoff contender. A&M is a really good team that should be in an NY6 Bowl Game, but not quite playoff-caliber unless there is self-destruction in the top four.
Florida (5-1, #6 in the AP Poll)
Unlike A&M, the path to the CFP for Florida is pretty clear: Win out and beat Alabama in the SEC title game and you’re in. That would give the Gators two top-five wins on the year (Georgia the other one), the one loss was to another top-five team by three points on the road (Texas A&M), and an SEC title. Every SEC champion has made the field since the CFP was introduced in 2014. The Gators would be an exciting CFP team, with Kyle Trask leading an explosive offense and a really talented roster.
Cincinnati (7-0, #7 in the AP Poll)
Cincy will face the problem that UCF faced when undefeated under Scott Frost: Being an undefeated conference champ in a Group of Five conferences just isn’t enough, you have to show something else. There haven’t been notable non-conference opportunities for the Bearcats to prove themselves as anything other than a really good G5 team. There’s no chance you can make the field without a Power-Five win. The AAC allowed for non-conference scheduling, and Cincinnati scheduled Austin Peay. That won’t cut it.
BYU (8-0, #8 in the AP Poll)
As an independent, BYU was in a tough spot this season. They had to take what they could get, and that resulted in a poor strength of schedule. The best BYU could do was a pair of Mountain West teams: Boise State and San Diego State. I wasn’t really sold on the possibility of BYU being a playoff team until I watched the Cougars abuse Boise State on the blue turf a couple of weeks ago. Now, I want BYU to do anything in their power to get a P5 team on their schedule. The Pac-12 announced that they will allow teams to schedule non-conference opponents, and now that the conference is struggling to get teams on the field, BYU should swoop in and schedule someone who has a weekend available to play. I would imagine clobbering a Pac-12 team would push BYU ahead of Cincinnati and possibly higher. The Cougars also need teams ahead of them to lose. It’s complicated, but there is a path.
Any Pac-12 team(Mainly Oregon and USC)
Go undefeated and win the conference, it would be pretty hard for the committee to leave out an undefeated P5 champion.
Writer
-By: TJ Mathewson