The Fumble: Figuring Out Who Has A Chance at the CFB Playoffs
The question of who can actually make it into the college football playoff is, in some ways, one of the easier questions to answer in college football. And in other ways a very difficult one to answer satisfactorily.
If somebody is looking for a predictive answer that is going to name the usual suspects every year, that is fairly easy and, to be fair, probably around 90% accurate. Sure, a Washington or a Michigan State makes it in every once in awhile, but it has been five years since a non-Ohio State Big Ten school has made it into the playoff, a non-Oklahoma team has never made it in, and the Pac-12 has only had two teams make it in since the beginning of the playoff. The SEC has had 3 teams make the playoff, but Alabama has been in the playoff every year but one. And the ACC apart from Clemson? Don’t make me laugh. Unless we’re also talking about Notre Dame.
My point is that you could pick 2-3 of the teams in the playoff every year with almost perfect accuracy by midway into the season, and some are content to do that.
But what about that last spot? What about those Washingtons and Michigan States? Who could conceivably make it into the playoff if everything falls correctly? This week on the Fumble, I’m going to separate college football into the tiers of playoff probability, based primarily on the very scientific measure of my own opinion. To be clear: this is a measure of probability for this season, not in general. For example, Oklahoma would normally be on this list, but is not this season. Maybe next year.
The Favorites: Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame
These are obvious: the teams that are in virtually every prediction. At this point, that group is composed of three teams. Notre Dame supplanted Clemson here with their victory against the Tigers, but it won’t take much at all for Clemson to jump back into the playoff. It is also interesting to note that Ohio State has significantly fewer games played so far; it is hard to truly gauge how or if the playoff committee will punish that. For now, though, the Buckeyes seem fairly safe, and a win against ninth-ranked Indiana would help significantly.
Just Keep Winning: Clemson, Texas A&M, Florida, Indiana, Wisconsin
Every one of these teams is virtually guaranteed a spot if they win out. For Clemson, that means avenging their loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Championship game. For the SEC schools, we know a one-loss SEC champion is in. For Indiana and Wisconsin, winning out involves beating Ohio State, maybe twice; that’s virtually guaranteed to be enough when paired with a conference championship.
Things Need to Fall Their Way: Oregon, Cincinnati, BYU
It is sad that the Pac-12 champion would need special circumstances to get in, but the benefit of the doubt is earned, not given, and the Pac-12 has yet to provide a reason to be taken particularly seriously in the playoff conversation since 2014. For Cincinnati and BYU, it is going to take a few losses by teams above to get in, but the path is theoretically there; it’s just very difficult to imagine either team getting in over a one-loss Notre Dame or Ohio State. The scenario with the highest probability/chaos combination? A two-loss Clemson that lost to Notre Dame twice against an AAC Champion, undefeated Cincinnati team that has consistently beaten the top of its conference with excellent defense. It could be quite the debate, but that’s probably the most likely circumstance for either non-power 5 school.
That’s probably it for legitimate contenders this season. Though it might be fun to imagine a scenario where, say, Oklahoma State gets in, it is unlikely to the point of being unnecessary for now. If the playoff rankings say otherwise...stay tuned.
But let us commence the second half of the fumble.
If the Season Ended Today, the Playoff Teams Would Be…
Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Clemson
This will be much more informed next week with the first week of playoff rankings, but this could easily by the four for the rest of the season. If everything holds steady but Clemson beats an undefeated Notre Dame in the ACC Championship, the order will change but the members almost definitely will not.
Where Does the Big Ten Get These Teams?
Last year it was Minnesota, a few years ago it was Iowa, and this year’s surprise undefeated Big Ten minor contender is ninth-ranked Indiana. I’m not entirely sure how it happens, but every year or two a random Big Ten school will become a top ten team for a year and fade back into obscurity with little predictability. Indiana has earned where they are at, even if their victory against Penn State seems much less impressive now. If they can beat Ohio State, it will make them an instant contender.
What happened to UCF?
Remember when the Black Knights were the G5’s best contender to make the playoff? When they were ranked #11 in the country? Well, they had two straight losses and have seen their hopes at taking advantage of a hectic season crumble. The playoff is out of the picture, but UCF can jump back into the top 25 this week by beating seventh-ranked Cincinnati. Is it likely to happen? Not necessarily, but only a few weeks ago this game had the makings of a top-ten matchup, and UCF’s eleventh-ranked offense against Cincinnati’s third-ranked defense should be fun to watch.
The State of the Big 12
The Big 12 as a conference was living pretty contentedly with Oklahoma at the top of the conference as a consistent playoff contender. Perhaps the Sooners' consistency made the whole conference look stronger than it was, because, with one bad season by the Sooners, there is not a single Big 12 school in the top 10. I picked on the Big 10 in my last column, but the real collapse has been here, where Oklahoma State is the conference’s last outside hope at a playoff spot. It isn’t pretty.
The Top of the G5 Rests With…
Cincinnati. Technically BYU is an independent, but the Bearcats still hold onto this spot, likely until they lose. If they can beat Central Florida, there is a chance they could finish the season with a ranked win against Tulsa, which certainly wouldn’t hurt their resume and chance at the playoff. Is it likely? Still no. Is it possible? I still think so.
Statistics and rankings courtesy of sports-reference.com
Writer
-By: Alex Spieldenner