AFC Playoff Scenarios: 11 Wins Not Enough?

An 11-win team has not missed the postseason since 2008 when the Matt Cassel-led Patriots fell short of the party. Even with the NFL expanding the playoffs, it’s quite possible that a scenario like that could play out again this year. Let’s examine the NFL playoff picture on the AFC side. For the NFC version, click here.

Current Playoff Picture:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) - Clinched AFC West & FRB

2. Buffalo Bills (12-3) - Clinched AFC East

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3) - Clinched AFC North

4. Tennessee Titans (10-5)

5. Miami Dolphins (10-5)

6. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)

7. Cleveland Browns (10-5)

In the Hunt: Indianapolis Colts (10-5)

#2 Seed

After starting 11-0, the Steelers are not even a lock for a top-two seed. The Buffalo Bills currently hold the same record as them and own the tiebreaker after a Sunday Night shellacking a couple of weeks ago. To capture the second seed, the Steelers would have to defeat (or tie) the Bengals and have Buffalo fall to a hungry Dolphins team next week. Any other scenario and Buffalo will remain in that #2 spot.

#4 Seed

Thanks to Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, the Titans went from playoff locks to possibly falling short of the postseason dance. A win gives them the division and the fourth seed, but a loss or tie complicates things. If they lose (@ 4-11 HOU) and Indianapolis wins or ties (vs. 1-14 JAX), the Colts would then take the division. 

The Jumbled Mess of the Wildcards

Thanks to Indianapolis pulling off a massive choke job against the Steelers this past Sunday, they are currently on the outside looking in. At 10-5, they do not control their own destiny. Indy needs a win (or tie) coupled with a loss by any of MIA, CLE, BAL, or TEN in order to get into the party.

Every other team in the picture controls their own destiny. For the Dolphins, the Ravens, and the Browns, a win clinches a playoff spot.

The season is going to come down to matchups. The Ravens get a four-win Bengals team looking to play spoiler. A strong victory over Houston gives Cincy some momentum. The Colts draw a tanking Jaguars team with just one win to their name. With the #1 overall pick locked up, the Jags can afford to spoil the Colts season. The Dolphins will face a 12-3 Buffalo squad that has a chance to lock up the two-seed. Tennessee gets a bad Texans team, but QB Deshaun Watson has shown the ability to keep them in every game.

My predicted playoff picture:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2, L vs. LAC)

2. Buffalo Bills (12-4, L vs. MIA)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4, L @ CLE)

4. Tennessee Titans (11-5, W @ HOU)

5. Miami Dolphins (11-5, W @ BUF)

6. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, W @ CIN)

7. Cleveland Browns (11-5, W vs. PIT)

Just Missed: Indianapolis Colts (11-5, W vs. JAX)

Writer

-By: Micah Jimoh