CFP Semifinals: Reviewing Clemson/ Ohio St & Alabama/Notre Dame Matchups

We made it. Thankfully, we haven’t suffered through a normal bowl season due to the number of teams opting out. Outside of Coastal Carolina-Liberty, there hasn’t been much to remember from this bowl season. However, we finally get the CFP Semifinals on New Years Day. Let’s see what we have here.

#2 Clemson vs #3 Ohio State

This is deja vu. On one hand, we get a rematch of last year! On the other, there’s no way this game can be good as the one we had last year. The fast start from Ohio State, Trevor Lawrence literally putting the Tigers on his back, and lastly the unforgettable fourth quarter. You know Justin Fields hasn’t forgotten that interception in the end zone. Can he redeem himself? Let’s examine.

This is going to be another fantastic dual of quarterbacks. We saw how much of a difference Trevor Lawrence makes to the Clemson program with the stomping of Notre Dame in the ACC Championship. Outside of his stellar 22-4 TD-INT and his nearly 10.0 YPA, his legs are what really made the difference these last two seasons. Just ask the Buckeyes what they thought when they chased him on that 67-yard touchdown run last year. 

Lawrence carries the ball when his team needs it the most. In the ACC Championship game vs Notre Dame, he torched the Irish on the ground for 90 yards on 14 carries. His previous season-high was just 41 yards. He ran for 107 yards against the Buckeyes last year.

Containing Lawrence and Travis Etienne are going to be the key. When both of them are clicking, Clemson is almost impossible to stop. Etienne averaged under 2 YPC in the first game vs Notre Dame. In the rematch? Over 12 YPC. Pretty strong correlation there.

The Buckeyes have been really stout against the run this season, a top-ten unit in yards/game. It’s through the air the Buckeyes have struggled at times this year, ranking in the bottom third of yards allowed(261.3). That’s with All-American corner Shaun Wade, who was ejected on a controversial targeting call the last time the two played.

I expect Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell to have plenty of opportunities through the air, and watch out for Etienne out of the backfield too. He scored the go-ahead touchdown on a pretty play design through the air last year.

The biggest question of this game is how will Justin Fields’ thumb injury affect him? We saw what it did in the Big Ten title game, he was an erratic 11/27 with two interceptions, probably the worst game he’s played as a Buckeye. He dismissed all concern for his injury saying he would be ready to go, I’ll believe it when I see it.

Fields threw two of three interceptions for the season against this Clemson defense last year, and the Tigers will be ready to pounce again if Fields has an off day. If Fields is on, only the guy wearing #16 on the other side is as electric through the air.

We saw what a healthy Clemson defense did to Notre Dame, totally stuffing the Irish for four quarters, and unlike the Buckeyes defense, the pass defense is pretty darn good.

FIelds will get Chris Olave back for Friday’s showdown, he missed him sorely in the Big Ten title game. If you remember, it was a miscommunication between Olave and Fields that caused the junior quarterback to throw the game-ending interception last year. 

The run game will be alive and well for Ohio State. Trey Sermon carried the Buckeye offense with over 300 yards on the ground against Northwestern. Clemson has been stout against the run all season.

I really want this game to mirror last year, but we won’t get that lucky. The Buckeyes aren’t as good as last year and it will show on the field.

PREDICTION: CLEMSON 38 OHIO STATE 28

#1 Alabama vs #4 Notre Dame

I’m going to keep this one a little shorter than the other ones, I don’t think Notre Dame has a chance.

The #1 vs #4 has turned into an annual beatdown for whoever is lucky enough to snag that last playoff spot. I’m old enough to remember when the #4 seed won two of the first four CFP Titles (Ohio State in 2014 and Alabama in 2017). Since then, this has been nothing more than a routine slaughter. I’m not expecting anything different this year.

You cannot blame Notre Dame. I thought they were pretty clearly the fourth-best team in the country when it was all said and done, this is just more of the dominance at the top of college football with Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State.

I have zero faith in any team to stop this Alabama offense. It doesn’t matter who the Crimson Tide have played, it hasn’t stopped Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, and Najee Harris. How many more times will we see the best QB, RB, and WR all on the same team? Not often. The Tide offense was unstoppable against Florida. 50+ is expected every time this group gets on the field.

The Irish defense has been really good this year, led by All-American LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and safety Kyle Hamilton. They might get off to a hot start and perhaps force a turnover, as they did against Clemson in the ACC title game, but there’s too much firepower on that Alabama offense.

Ian Book might be able to find some holes on that Alabama defense. The Tide have looked vulnerable on defense at times this year, allowing 46 to Florida in the SEC Title Game and 48 to Ole Miss in October.  I would imagine Nick Saban has his defense a little more fired up after the way they were shredded in the second half against Kyle Trask.

Book will need to create some magic, and I just don’t think he can do it.

PREDICTION: ALABAMA 48 NOTRE DAME 14

Writer

-By: TJ Mathewson