It took less than 24 hours after the 70-7 Territorial Cup shellacking that Arizona State put on Arizona for Wildcats’ coach Kevin Sumlin to be shown the door. It was the most points the Wildcats have allowed in 71 years (lost 75-0 to Michigan State in 1949). He finished his tenure in Tucson at 9-20 losing his last 12 in a row. Safe to say that Sumlin didn’t live up to the billing when he was brought in to replace Rich Rodriguez after the 2017 season.
Sumlin never beat ASU and Herm Edwards during his three years. A blown 19-point fourth-quarter lead in 2018, a 24-14 loss in 2019, and the 70-7 slaughter a week ago. Each year, the game trended more and more in the direction of the Sun Devils. Better recruiting, better coaching, and an overall better model. A culture you could believe in.
If you jump back in the time machine to January 2018, when Sumlin was hired, this end scenario was supposed to be the other way around between the two schools. Sumlin was a proven winner at Texas A&M and Houston and was an ace recruiter. Herm Edwards was hired straight out of the ESPN TV studio, and hadn’t coached in college since 1989 as a cornerbacks coach for San Jose State.
All you need to do is go look at the reactions for when Herm/Sumlin was hired. Let’s take a look at a couple:
*For context, I, among a lot of other people, hated the Herm Edwards hire initially. Three years later, I’m biting my tongue on it. It’s a slam dunk. Now for the reactions”
Just scroll through this article on Arizona Sports 98.7 to get an idea.
This is like a bad dream. Herm Edwards may be a great guy. But he wasn’t a good football coach when he coached, getting fired from Kansas City after going 2-14 almost a decade ago. His career coaching record is 20 games below .500. How ASU President Dr. Michael Crow could allow this to go through is beyond me.
What’s more mind-blowing: That A$U actually allocated more than $12 million to buy out a football coach or that the $12 million paved the way for… Herm Edwards?! Uh, give us a moment on that.
Safe to say it didn’t go over well.
What about Sumlin? Here’s a goodie:
Kevin Sumlin to Arizona has to be the most frustrating development possible for ASU fans who wanted him in the first place and instead ended up with Herm Edwards.
Kevin Sumlin should do a bang-up job recruiting on this side of the country -- while also dipping back into the Southeast and Texas. Arizona's offense should be even more balanced as well. Very good hire by Arizona
So what happened? How did this all go in completely different directions than we thought.
The Recruiting
There were three notable Pac-12 South coaching hires after the 2017 season, the two mentioned above and Chip Kelly at UCLA. The consensus that Edwards would get blitzed on the recruiting trail in both southern California by the combination of Kelly at UCLA and USC, and in Texas plus the south by Sumlin.
In Edwards first recruiting class, one in which he didn’t even get a full cycle to recruit, the Sun Devils managed to finish sixth in the Pac-12 in recruiting by 247Sports. Arizona was 11th. A year later, Arizona State was 5th in the conference in recruiting, Arizona 11th again.
This was the class where the Sun Devils nabbed star QB Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 dual-threat QB in the country, nearly one full year after Edwards was hired, and announced the Sun Devils presence in Southern California. So if you are counting, Edwards had nabbed his star quarterback and seventh four-star recruit in just over a year. Sumlin and Arizona had managed to recruit one.
Now to 2020: Arizona State jumps up another spot in the Pac-12 recruiting rankings, finishing in fourth, while Arizona finished 11th again. It took one of the worst recruiting cycles in USC history for the Wildcats not to finish last. Arizona got zero blue-chip prospects (4- or 5-star recruits) in two of the three years with Sumlin. It was supposed to be the other way around, but Edwards has recruited at levels that are uncommon in ASU history.
For good measure, in the 70-7 blowout win for ASU, it was Edwards recruits who did the damage. Three touchdowns from JC transfer Rachaad White, one from Daniyel Ngata (4-star in 2020), one from Demonte Trayanum (4-star in 2020), one from Jayden Daniels, one from Ricky Pearsall (3-star in 2019), and for good measure, one from walk-on RB Jackson He, who became the first Chinese-born player to score a touchdown in FBS history. How awesome is that?
The recruiting success at ASU can be credited to Edwards and the staff he built around him. Along with Edwards, Marvin Lewis, Antonio Pierce, Kevin Mawae, and others were brought in to sell recruits on an “NFL Model,” and it has worked. The program operates to send kids to the NFL, and in the first two years alone, the Sun Devils have had a first-round pick in each year (N’Keal Harry in 2019 and Brandon Aiyuk in 2020). The Wildcats have had one player total selected in Sumlin’s three years (PJ Johnson in 2019).
In summary, the slam-dunk consensus that Sumlin would continue being an ace recruiter away from the SEC fell flat on its face, and that crushed this rivalry and outlook for the Arizona program until they find someone who can recruit to Tucson.
Development at QB
When Sumlin was hired in 2018, he inherited breakout QB Khalil Tate who compiled over 1400 yards and 12 touchdowns through the air and on the ground. Everyone was drawing lines to what Sumlin did with Johnny Manziel, transforming the star dual-threat QB into a first-round pick and winning two NY6 bowl games in both years with Manziel at QB. Prior to Manziel, Sumlin coached the record-setting career of Case Keenum at Houston. The expectations for Tate’s development were through the roof.
Tate appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated in August of 2018 with the subhead saying: He’s the nation’s best QB (hand him the Heisman).
Then the roof collapsed (kind of).
The way Sumlin and new OC Noel Mazzone used Tate was puzzling, to say the least. Tate battled injuries and curious play-calling in 2018. Passing-wise, the best season of his career with 26 touchdowns through the air, but only two on the ground. The best part of Tate’s game vanished from his arsenal. The Wildcats finished 5-7 and missed a bowl game, blowing a 19-point fourth-quarter lead to Herm’s Sun Devils in the Territorial Cup.
2019 was no better for Tate, he was benched halfway through the year against his hometown USC team, he split duties the rest of the way with freshman Grant Gunnell. He threw three interceptions in his final collegiate game against ASU, the Wildcats seventh consecutive loss. A fitting end to such a promising collegiate career. Tate just never seemed to fit with the new coaching staff, and it ended in frustration and lackluster play.
In 2020, the Wildcats haven’t found any consistent success under center. In the Territorial Cup alone, Sumlin rolled out three different quarterbacks (Gunnell, Rhett Rodriguez, and Will Plummer). That tells you all you need to know.
Up the road in Tempe, it has been a completely different story. When Herm Edwards arrived in Tempe, he had an established veteran in Manny Wilkins. Unlike Tate, Wilkins was never the center of attention on offense, that always went to emerging sophomore running back Eno Benjamin and junior N’Keal Harry. His stats were nearly identical in both 2017 with OC Billy Napier, and in 2018 with OC Rob Likens (Likens was the WR coach in 2017).
What Edwards did that Sumlin didn’t was land that game-changing QB in recruiting. It was a huge victory for the Sun Devils when Jayden Daniels announced his commitment. It was the highest-rated QB recruit since Brady White in 2015, and felt like a Herm Edwards signature stamp on the program. Daniels started opening week as a true freshman and hasn’t looked back. While Daniels hasn’t lit it up as much as another dual-threat QB in his own class, Sam Howell, thanks to injuries, COVID, and offensive inconsistencies, there’s NFL talent in that right arm and Herm is happy to have him.
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So where do the Wildcats go from here? Losing 12 games in a row at any level of football will almost certainly get you fired, but it was more than that for the reason Sumlin was let go. Poor execution at every level of being a college coach. Whoever comes in to replace Sumlin, there will a hefty amount of work to do to fix the mess left behind.
Writer
-By: TJ Mathewson