College Football Playoff Preview: Peach Bowl LSU-Oklahoma
Who’s ready for a party? The entire season of predictions, analysis, touchdowns, and interceptions has finally led to this: the College Football Playoff. Finally, we take steps towards finding out who the national champion will be. The first semifinal features two storied programs, as #4 Oklahoma faces off against #1 LSU in the Peach Bowl. Can the Sooners pull off an upset, or will the Tigers’ dominant season continue? Let’s look closer to try to find out.
#1 LSU
Preseason Preview: LSU
How They Got Here: The Tigers were arguably the most dominant team in the nation, beating a stunning four teams in the top 15 and unseating the perennially-excellent Alabama Crimson Tide as the SEC Champion. LSU was led by the best quarterback in the country and the winner of the Heisman trophy, Joe Burrow. Burrow’s numbers are hard to believe, as he posted over 4700 yards passing with an 8:1 touchdown/interception ratio. Not only was the ratio excellent, but so was the final count: a superb 48 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions. Add in 289 rushing yards, a 77.9 completion percentage, and the fact that he was in the top-3 in virtually every passing category and you have a superstar quarterback capable of leading a team to a national championship. But Burrow hasn’t been the only reason LSU has been so good: running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has made himself a vital weapon with over 1600 all-purpose yards, and two different receivers, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, have over 1200 yards receiving. This has all combined to create one of the most powerful offenses in the nation, one that has outdueled teams like Alabama and pounded teams like Texas A&M.
Biggest Weakness: LSU has a below-average (for a contender) pass defense by passing yards and touchdowns allowed per game, but that needs to be viewed with the lense of defending teams that were trying to come back after falling behind one of the most potent offenses in the nation. In fact, LSU actually allowed the sixth-lowest completion percentage in the country. Their rushing defense, however, is only passable compared to other top programs: they are outside of the top 20 in both yards allowed per rush and rushing yards allowed per game despite the fact that they are in the top 20 in rushing attempts per game against them. To be fair, though, the Tigers had one of their better performances when they were dominant defensively against a Georgia team that is currently ranked fifth in the nation. But Georgia’s offense isn’t even in the same conversation as Oklahoma’s. If LSU loses, it will be because its defense couldn’t contain Jalen Hurts.
Injury Concerns: LSU’s two top running backs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Tyrion Davis-Prince are both struggling with injuries and are questionable to play in the game. Oklahoma’s biggest defensive weakness is the run game, and it would be a huge blow to the Tigers to be without their two top backs. However, the rest of the team is remarkably healthy, and Ed Orgeron should feel confident in the rest of his squad.
LSU wins if: The team that has dominated all season shows up, Joe Burrow shreds a weak defense and the Tigers’ own defense is able to slow the Sooners’ offense just enough to allow their own offense to gain the upper hand. LSU should win this game, but it starts with Burrow playing like he has all year and ends with the Tigers’ defense keeping Hurts from beating them.
#4 Oklahoma
Preseason Preview: Oklahoma
How They Got Here: LSU’s offense may be great, but what’s crazy is that Oklahoma has one to match it. Led by Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts, the Sooners lead the nation in yards per play and trail the Tigers by a tenth of a yard per game. Hurts himself has also put up eye-popping numbers, with over 3600 passing yards and over 1200 rushing yards, leading to Hurts being the runner-up for the Heisman trophy behind Burrow. The Sooners are suffering a bit from their own success, however, as nobody is interested in an Oklahoma offense that lights up the scoreboard. But we haven’t seen a Sooner team with an even average defense in the playoff before, and this will be the year that changes: Lincoln Riley and Alex Grinch have their team in the top 40 in yards allowed per game and per play, which is at least 40 spots better than either of the last two years. That isn’t a typo; those defenses were abysmal. Oklahoma has the offense to match up with LSU, the question is whether its newly-found defensive adequacy can help pull off the upset. The Sooners weren’t expected to be here: I basically buried their chances here only to see them squeeze in a few weeks later. But they’re here now, with a chance to really make a splash.
Biggest Weakness: Like LSU, Oklahoma’s biggest struggle comes from a defense that has a hard time keeping up with a dominant offense. It struggles a bit more than LSU’s, but it also tends to be on the field less than the Tigers’ defense. The Sooners’ biggest struggle could be containing the Ed Orgeron’s running game, as Oklahoma ranks a paltry 50th in yards allowed per rush. Having Edwards-Helaire unable to play would be a huge advantage, and allow a passing defense that has allowed fewer than 200 yards per game to try to contain the best quarterback in the nation. This is going to be really difficult, but it just might work.
Injury Concerns: The Sooners will be missing multiple impact players, as the Sooners’ sack leader Ronnie Perkins is suspended and backup running back Rhamondre Stevenson are both going to be suspended for the game. Lincoln Riley has said, however, that their starting running back Kennedy Brooks will be playing despite a neck injury. Losing Perkins really hurts, particularly because putting pressure on Burrow will be paramount in stopping the LSU offensive attack. But having Brooks suit up should be an important advantage if LSU can’t play its own top running back.
Oklahoma wins if: Clyde Edwards-Helaire doesn’t play, the Sooner defense is able to contain offense missing a key playmaker, and Jalen Hurts leads the offense to a point-scoring bonanza. Even if Edwards-Helaire doesn’t play, Joe Burrow is still the best college player in the country, and the Sooners will have their hands full trying to stop him. But it becomes much easier if the running game isn’t much of a factor.
My prediction: LSU should win, but things get dicey if Edwards-Helaire can’t play. Weird things can happen in shootouts, so I wouldn’t call this a given, even if the Tigers are heavy favorites. LSU 49, Oklahoma 45.
All statistics, game information and injury information is according to sports-reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
-By: Alex Spieldenner
Writer/ Interviewer