Looking at the CFP Top 10: Conference Championships
The college football regular season is finally over. After twelve long weeks of games, drama, one-handed catches and flea-flicker touchdowns, we’ve finally reached the tipping point of the season. These last few championship games will determine teams’ playoff hopes, bowl berths and momentum heading into next season. Only a few teams are actually playing for a chance to end the season in one of the top four spots, but there are a lot of teams who would love to add a top-10 victory to their season, even without a chance at the national championship. I promised a longer article this week, but once I got started I realized that that probably wasn’t going to happen. So as a consolation, I present to you a slight alteration in the format: Instead of looking at the Top 10, we’re going to examine each power 5 conference championship, ranked by playoff implications.
SEC Championship Game: #4 Georgia vs. #2 LSU
Why it matters: This is the only game that offers a chance for two teams to get into the playoff. If Georgia were to beat LSU, that would leave the committee looking at a team that has been a consensus top-2 team since the first playoff rankings came out yet somehow hasn’t won their conference. It’s been well documented that the committee must choose the “four best” teams over the “four most deserving.” I think it’s a dumb distinction but it comes into factor here: LSU is a top-4 team according to virtually anyone. But including them would likely mean both the Pac-12 and Big 12 would get left out once again. Oklahoma, Baylor, and Utah just have to pray that Ed Orgeron and the Tigers play like the second-best team in the country and beat the consistently-troublesome Bulldogs.
Pac-12 Championship Game: #5 Utah vs. #13 Oregon
Why it matters: This game was all set to be a massive game between two top-7 opponents until Oregon lost against ASU. But even with the significantly-lower stakes, this game is still important, because the rankings as they currently stand would seem to indicate that Utah will be the first one in if Georgia gets beat by LSU. Can a dominant performance by Baylor or Oklahoma jump the Big 12 into the playoff even if Utah wins? I’m not sure. But the Utes seem to be in a pretty strong situation as it stands now. Of course, TCU fans will point out that in 2014 they were ranked as high as third yet somehow were left out of the playoff without losing after achieving that #3 ranking. Utah’s best chance is to blow out Oregon, hope LSU beats Georgia and hold their collective breaths until the selection show on Sunday.
Big 12 Championship Game: #6 Oklahoma vs. #7 Baylor
Why it matters: Can the Big 12 somehow catapult one of their teams over both Utah and the loser of the SEC Championship game to make the playoff? It might not be easy, but it’s far from impossible. Their job becomes very easy if Utah and Georgia both lose; that essentially would make this game a play-in game. If LSU loses to Georgia, on the other hand, it probably nullifies the results for both this game and the Pac-12 Championship game, at least regarding playoff implications. Both Oklahoma and Baylor are in the uncomfortable position of having their destinies taken out of their hands. But such is the life of a one-loss Power 5 team. It shouldn’t be forgotten, however, that, uh, certain college football writers buried the Big 12 only a few weeks ago. The fact that they are still in contention has to count for something, even if that something isn’t a playoff spot.
ACC Championship Game: #3 Clemson vs. #22 Virginia
Why it matters: The only Conference Championship with a team outside of the top 15, This officially commences the section where nobody really knows if the games matter. Would Clemson really be left out with one loss? It’s clear that the committee doesn’t truly respect the Tigers as much as LSU or Ohio State, but I still find it hard to believe that the defending national champions (who played much better after their weak opening, by the way) wouldn’t be able to sneak in as at least a four seed even if they lost. Virginia, on the other hand, is playing for their biggest possible award this week. They obviously have no chance at the playoff, but could a win here get them into a New Years’ 6 Bowl? It will definitely be something to pay attention to.
Big 10 Championship Game: #1 Ohio State vs. #8 Wisconsin
Why it matters: Who doesn’t love a rematch? The Buckeyes pounded the Badgers earlier in the season 38-7 when the two teams played in October, leading some people to question whether Justin Fields, recently a little beaten up, should even play in this game. The answer? Absolutely. The highest-ranked two-loss team in the nation, Wisconsin is still very real after beating everybody’s (or at least my) favorite surprise team, Minnesota. This game could have been a play-in game if the Golden Gophers had been able to beat Wisconsin, but instead, Wisconsin has the dubious honor of being the highest-ranked non-contender. Meanwhile, the question has been asked: is Ohio State in even with a loss? It certainly seems likely for the same reason LSU would probably still be in with a loss of their own. The Buckeyes have been nothing if not impressive for the entire season, and it would be a very difficult argument that they weren’t clearly better than virtually any other one-loss team the committee has to offer. That puts this game at the bottom of the list.
That’s going to wrap up the “Looking at the Top 10” Column for the rest of the year. Look for my playoff analysis and previews in the coming weeks, but until then enjoy the last bits of top-10 college football until January. It should be a wild one.
All game results, statistics and ranking information according to sports-reference.com unless otherwise noted.
-By: Alex Spieldenner
Writer/Interviewer