Redoing the 2019 NFL Draft: NBA Lottery Style
Redoing the 2019 NFL Draft: NBA Lottery Style
With the NBA Lottery recently occurring it got me thinking, what if every sport had a draft lottery? I know tanking isn’t as frequent in other sports but boy oh boy would that put a twist in the NFL draft. For this article, I will use the percentages and outcomes from the NBA lottery and replace them with the NFL standings. The picks will be change based on whose available / what each team did in the actual draft.
Here’s the reverse standings (or actual draft order) with the % chance they land the 1st pick and a top 4 pick (according to NBA Lottery scale):
Team Top 4% 1st %
1. Arizona Cardinals 52.1% 14%
2. San Francisco 49ers 52.1% 14%
3. New York Jets 52.1% 14%
4. Oakland Raiders 48% 12.5%
5. Tampa Bay Bucs 42.1% 10.5%
6. New York Giants 37.2% 9%
7. Jacksonville Jaguars 26.3% 6%
8. Detroit Lions 26.3% 6%
9. Buffalo Bills 26.3% 6%
10. Denver Broncos 13.9% 3%
11. Cincinnati Bengals 9.4% 2%
12. Green Bay Packers 4.8% 1%
13. Miami Dolphins 4.8% 1%
14. Atlanta Falcons 4.8% 1%
If the ping pong balls bounced the same way here is what the 2019 NFL Draft order would look like:
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo Bills
Arizona Cardinals
Cincinnati Bengals
San Francisco 49ers
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders
Tampa Bay Bucs
New York Giants
Detroit Lions
Denver Broncos
Green Bay Packers
Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
Very interesting let's see how the draft would’ve potentially ended up.
With the first pick in the NFL Draft…
The Jaguars select Nick Bosa. Originally the Jaguars were picking 7th and selected defensive line/edge Josh Allen. I don’t see the Jaguars going with a QB here considering they just signed Nick Foles. You have to think Jaguars are taking best available…
With #2 overall… The Buffalo Bills select Josh Allen. The second year in a row they take a Josh Allen in the first round. Originally picking 9th, the Bills took DL Ed Oliver. You gotta think they go with a similar pick and add to the defensive line.
With the #3 overall the Arizona Cardinals still get Kyler Murray. No teams ahead of them were in need of a QB… The QB drops to them.
#4 Bengals take Quinnen Williams. This pick differs from the OT they took at 11. You have to think a talent like Williams does not fall. Bengals defense could always use an upgrade.
#5 49ers take Devin White. Instead of getting Bosa, they continue to add speed on the defense. Devin White has some speed and could help to the inside of the 49er defense.
#6 Jets take Jonah Williams. Without a consensus best available the Jets will draft for need here. This is a great opportunity to add protection to the young QB in Sam Darnold. They take the best OL in the draft.
#7 The Raiders take Clelin Ferrell. Whatever they liked about him at 4, I am sure they would love at 7.
#8 Bucs take Ed Oliver. Bucs need help everywhere. Why not start in the middle of the defense.
#9 Giants STILL take Daniel Jones.
#10 Detroit Lions will still get TJ Hockenson.
#11 Broncos take Devin Bush or Trade with the Steelers who take the same. Both could use help on Defense.
#12 Rashan Gary to Packers
#13 Christian Wilkins to Dolphins
#14 Chris Lindstrom to Falcons
Overall there are a few changes that could affect the league long term. But generally, the front of the draft is where players are on different teams. I believe they would like to stick to similar positions and needs though. My most intriguing change is the Jets upgrading the offensive line instead of adding to the defensive. I believe this will make the Jets better in the long run.
-By: Pete Gallagher