NFL Playoffs Preview: Bills vs. Chiefs, Game of the Year?

Last season, the AFC crown came down to the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. In that game, the Chiefs came out victorious, making their way to their second straight Super Bowl appearance after winning it the year before. One year later, both teams meet again in the divisional round in a game that has the chance to be the game of the year. Let us analyze all three phases of the ball for each team, as well as coaching, and predict who is going back to the AFC Championship game.

How They Got Here

While both teams won their division, it was not always easy for both squads, as they each went through some bumps in the road throughout the season. Starting with Buffalo, after a 4-2 start heading into the bye, they went 3-4 in their first seven games after, including a bad 9-6 loss to Jacksonville. Another bad loss was a 41-15 beatdown by the Colts, who also lost to Jacksonville in the final week of the season. They also lost a game in which their opponent, the Patriots, threw three passes. After these struggles though, Buffalo ended the season on a four-game winning streak and beat those same Patriots in dominant fashion in the first round of the playoffs, 47-17. When Buffalo wins, they dominate. They have won every game by at least 12 points, shut out two teams, and won by 30 or more points three times. It is the close games that have given Buffalo fits.

As for Kansas City, there were similar concerns but raised to a different level after starting the season 3-4 and turning the ball over at will. After an embarrassing 27-3 loss to the Titans in Week 7, Kansas City promptly won nine out of ten to end the season, which included an eight-game winning streak. Their only loss was to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17, a 34-31 shootout loss. After clinching the AFC West against the Steelers in Week 16, the Chiefs took care of business of them in the Wild Card round, steamrolling them to the tune of 42-21.

Allen vs. Mahomes

In a game that may feature the two best young quarterbacks in the league, there should be tons of fireworks in this one. Some may even call it the modern-day version of Manning vs. Brady. Regardless, Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes should be nothing short of electric. Starting Mahomes, it was a tough start for the young superstar. Despite this, his numbers to end the season were anything but a struggle, completing 66% of his passes for 4,839 yards, throwing 37 TD to 13 INT. After throwing 12 picks threw Week 13, Mahomes threw just one over the last five weeks while tossing a whopping 12 TD’s in that span. In the first round of the playoffs, Mahomes was nearly perfect, going 30/39 with 404 yards and 5 touchdowns. By far his best performance of the season.

As for Allen, he was slightly worse, but using the term worse is a disservice to the season Allen had. Allen totaled 42 TD to 15 INT with 4,407 passing yards and 763 rushing yards. It was either perfect for Allen, or the sky looked like it was falling, but most of the time it was on the better side. Allen is still prone to turn the ball over at a higher clip than you would like, but his incredible athletic ability and maturation on the fly have made that an occurrence less and less. It is crazy to think that Mahomes performance was the second-best of Wild Card weekend, but because of Allen, here we are. Allen was as locked in as you can possibly be, putting up one of the best playoff performances in recent memory, if not NFL history. Allen diced up an elite Patriots defense, going 21/25 with 308 yards and 5 touchdowns, while also rushing for 66 yards in the victory. Both Mahomes and Allen had passer ratings over 135, with Allen getting the better mark at 157.6 (158.3 is perfect).

Matchups to Watch

As expected, TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill will show up for the Chiefs, as well as WR Stefon Diggs and TE Dawson Knox for the Bills, but the matchup to watch is in the backfield between HB’s Jerick McKinnon (Chiefs) and Devin Singletary (Bills). Starting with McKinnon, who was basically a non-factor during the regular season, turned 20 touches into 142 yards and a touchdown. He had 169 total yards in the regular season. Even with HB Clyde Edwards-Helaire practicing this week for Kansas City with a chance to play, there is no way McKinnon does not start or play the bulk of the snaps. Players that get hot in the playoffs tend to stay hot and that might be the case for McKinnon. 

On the other side, HB Devin Singletary ended the season strong and carried that into the playoffs. Since Week 15, Singletary has 404 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, including the playoffs. The main correlation is that Buffalo has not lost since he started playing well, taking some pressure off Josh Allen. It will not be the focal point of either offense because of how potent the passing games are, but there is a chance the team that can run the ball the best will win this game.

Defense

Because of how explosive the offenses are, some people forget about how good the defenses are as well. Starting with Buffalo, they were ranked the number one defense in total yards and points allowed. They gave up 30 points three times all season and lost all three games. Despite this, Buffalo allowed 20 points or less 10 times this season, including holding the Chiefs to 20 in a blowout win in Week 5. Buffalo can beat you on both sides of the ball, despite being somehow underrated on defense.

Like the offense, Kansas City’s defense was not pretty early on, but turned a corner and never looked back. After giving up 29 or more points in their first five games, the Chiefs gave up 20 points or more in just four of their last 12 games, including holding teams to under 15 for a month straight. It is going to be tough to stop these offenses, so getting one-stop might be the difference in this ballgame.

Prediction

While I truly do not know who has the edge in this game, I am going to predict the Chiefs to win in an extremely close game. The Chiefs did not have as emotional of a victory as Buffalo last week just based on their opponent and may have a little more in the tank than Buffalo. If the Bills come out flat, the Chiefs might go up three scores in a blink if they are not careful. While yes, the Bills will be locked in, the Chiefs have been rolling for the better part of two months and have seemed to hit their stride. While the Bills did as well, I feel if both teams play a perfect game, the Chiefs have just barely more talent to get the win in the Divisional Round.

Stats from profootballreference.com

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-By: Richie Dordas