Last season, the AFC crown came down to the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. In that game, the Chiefs came out victorious, making their way to their second straight Super Bowl appearance after winning it the year before. One year later, both teams meet again in the divisional round in a game that has the chance to be the game of the year. Let us analyze all three phases of the ball for each team, as well as coaching, and predict who is going back to the AFC Championship game.

How They Got Here

While both teams won their division, it was not always easy for both squads, as they each went through some bumps in the road throughout the season. Starting with Buffalo, after a 4-2 start heading into the bye, they went 3-4 in their first seven games after, including a bad 9-6 loss to Jacksonville. Another bad loss was a 41-15 beatdown by the Colts, who also lost to Jacksonville in the final week of the season. They also lost a game in which their opponent, the Patriots, threw three passes. After these struggles though, Buffalo ended the season on a four-game winning streak and beat those same Patriots in dominant fashion in the first round of the playoffs, 47-17. When Buffalo wins, they dominate. They have won every game by at least 12 points, shut out two teams, and won by 30 or more points three times. It is the close games that have given Buffalo fits.

As for Kansas City, there were similar concerns but raised to a different level after starting the season 3-4 and turning the ball over at will. After an embarrassing 27-3 loss to the Titans in Week 7, Kansas City promptly won nine out of ten to end the season, which included an eight-game winning streak. Their only loss was to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17, a 34-31 shootout loss. After clinching the AFC West against the Steelers in Week 16, the Chiefs took care of business of them in the Wild Card round, steamrolling them to the tune of 42-21.

Allen vs. Mahomes

In a game that may feature the two best young quarterbacks in the league, there should be tons of fireworks in this one. Some may even call it the modern-day version of Manning vs. Brady. Regardless, Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes should be nothing short of electric. Starting Mahomes, it was a tough start for the young superstar. Despite this, his numbers to end the season were anything but a struggle, completing 66% of his passes for 4,839 yards, throwing 37 TD to 13 INT. After throwing 12 picks threw Week 13, Mahomes threw just one over the last five weeks while tossing a whopping 12 TD’s in that span. In the first round of the playoffs, Mahomes was nearly perfect, going 30/39 with 404 yards and 5 touchdowns. By far his best performance of the season.

As for Allen, he was slightly worse, but using the term worse is a disservice to the season Allen had. Allen totaled 42 TD to 15 INT with 4,407 passing yards and 763 rushing yards. It was either perfect for Allen, or the sky looked like it was falling, but most of the time it was on the better side. Allen is still prone to turn the ball over at a higher clip than you would like, but his incredible athletic ability and maturation on the fly have made that an occurrence less and less. It is crazy to think that Mahomes performance was the second-best of Wild Card weekend, but because of Allen, here we are. Allen was as locked in as you can possibly be, putting up one of the best playoff performances in recent memory, if not NFL history. Allen diced up an elite Patriots defense, going 21/25 with 308 yards and 5 touchdowns, while also rushing for 66 yards in the victory. Both Mahomes and Allen had passer ratings over 135, with Allen getting the better mark at 157.6 (158.3 is perfect).

Matchups to Watch

As expected, TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill will show up for the Chiefs, as well as WR Stefon Diggs and TE Dawson Knox for the Bills, but the matchup to watch is in the backfield between HB’s Jerick McKinnon (Chiefs) and Devin Singletary (Bills). Starting with McKinnon, who was basically a non-factor during the regular season, turned 20 touches into 142 yards and a touchdown. He had 169 total yards in the regular season. Even with HB Clyde Edwards-Helaire practicing this week for Kansas City with a chance to play, there is no way McKinnon does not start or play the bulk of the snaps. Players that get hot in the playoffs tend to stay hot and that might be the case for McKinnon. 

On the other side, HB Devin Singletary ended the season strong and carried that into the playoffs. Since Week 15, Singletary has 404 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, including the playoffs. The main correlation is that Buffalo has not lost since he started playing well, taking some pressure off Josh Allen. It will not be the focal point of either offense because of how potent the passing games are, but there is a chance the team that can run the ball the best will win this game.

Defense

Because of how explosive the offenses are, some people forget about how good the defenses are as well. Starting with Buffalo, they were ranked the number one defense in total yards and points allowed. They gave up 30 points three times all season and lost all three games. Despite this, Buffalo allowed 20 points or less 10 times this season, including holding the Chiefs to 20 in a blowout win in Week 5. Buffalo can beat you on both sides of the ball, despite being somehow underrated on defense.

Like the offense, Kansas City’s defense was not pretty early on, but turned a corner and never looked back. After giving up 29 or more points in their first five games, the Chiefs gave up 20 points or more in just four of their last 12 games, including holding teams to under 15 for a month straight. It is going to be tough to stop these offenses, so getting one-stop might be the difference in this ballgame.

Prediction

While I truly do not know who has the edge in this game, I am going to predict the Chiefs to win in an extremely close game. The Chiefs did not have as emotional of a victory as Buffalo last week just based on their opponent and may have a little more in the tank than Buffalo. If the Bills come out flat, the Chiefs might go up three scores in a blink if they are not careful. While yes, the Bills will be locked in, the Chiefs have been rolling for the better part of two months and have seemed to hit their stride. While the Bills did as well, I feel if both teams play a perfect game, the Chiefs have just barely more talent to get the win in the Divisional Round.

Stats from profootballreference.com

Writer

-By: Richie Dordas

Both the Bills and the Steelers have playoff aspirations this season.  Based on last year's performance, the Bills will be looking to at least return to the AFC Championship Game. This matchup of defending division champions proved to be a tale of two halves, with the Bills winning the first half and the Steelers dominating the second half.  Pittsburgh's second half was enough to defeat Buffalo, 23-16, in an entertaining opening game.

After the 2020 NFL regular season was played in front of nearly empty stadiums, the huge crowd in Buffalo showed how much difference a crowd makes.  The Buffalo Bills came out of the gate running at full speed with a 75-yard return of the opening kickoff.  The Steelers' defense picked right up where it left off last year, preventing the Bills from gaining a first down and holding the home team to a field goal.  

In fact, the Steelers' defense kept them in the game in a first half controlled by the Bills.  The Steelers managed only 53 yards of offense in the entire first half.  Buffalo put together only one sustained drive, that coming near halftime, culminating with a perfectly thrown touchdown pass from Josh Allen to Gabriel Davis.  

The second half was a different story altogether.  The Steelers' first drive after halftime only resulted in a field goal but covered more yardage, 62 yards, than the team had managed in the entire first half.  Their next drive ended in their first touchdown of the season, a pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Dionte Johnson, who made a beautiful catch in the end zone for the score.  The offense found a rhythm that was missing in the first half, while the Bills' offense seemed to lose the consistency it showed in its earlier touchdown drive.

A blocked punt returned for a touchdown put the Steelers up 20-10, and after the Bills cut the lead to 7 points with a field goal, the Steelers again put together a nice drive.  The resulting field goal effectively put the game away.

New Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada's squad did show more of a commitment to running the football.  Roethlisberger finished with 32 passing attempts, as compared to 21 rushing attempts for the team.  Rookie Najee Harris flashed some of the slick moves that made him a first-round draft choice this year.  It will be interesting to see if this trend toward a more balanced offense continues as the season wears on.  

The Bills offense was more focused on passing the football, with Allen attempting 51 passes while the team only rushed 25 times, with 9 of those attempts by Allen himself.  With the strong receiving corps Buffalo has, led by Stefon Diggs (9 catches for 69 yards on Sunday) the Bills offense figures to continue to be a pass-first one.   

Bills coach Sean McDermott continued his aggressive posture by going for it on fourth down three times, including on successive drives in the third quarter.  Those two attempts failed, the second one losing 7 yards on an inexplicable backward toss deep in their own backfield.  Despite this, expect the Bills to continue to operate very aggressively on fourth down this season.  

One area that didn't factor much into the game was the Steelers' rebuilt offensive line.  The Bills had two sacks on the day and did put pressure on Roethlisberger occasionally, but overall the line had a quiet day, which is a good sign for the Steelers going forward.  The Bills' offensive line was more noticeable, incurring several costly holding penalties trying to contain the Steelers' relentless pass rush.  The Bills will need to clean up those mistakes if they want to have more overall offensive consistency.  

In the National Football League very little is learned in the opening weeks of the season.  Real contenders are not yet separated from those teams that put up a couple of early wins and then fade fast.  It is important not to put too much importance on the outcome of this game, but the Steelers have to be happy with the win in Buffalo, especially the play of the new offensive line.  The Bills showed some of the characteristics that led to 13 wins and a division title last season, but they will need to show more discipline on the offensive line and get more stops at critical times from their defense if they hope to return to the AFC Championship Game for the second year in a row.

Writer

-By: Damian Mastrangelo

    Orchard Park, NY – If there was ever a doubt about Buffalo’s legitimacy in the AFC playoff race, consider them put to rest. The Bills, looking to take advantage of a rare power vacuum in the AFC East, have officially stamped themselves as a conference powerhouse to behold, as they all but suffocated the formerly undefeated Pittsburgh Steeler and their chance at a first-round bye with a 26-15 win on a slushy night in Orchard Park.  

Thank you, Minnesota! 

            When Bills GM Brandon Beane traded away his team’s 2020 first-round pick (No. 22 overall), a 2020 fifth-round pick, a 2020 sixth-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick for then-Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs and a 2020 seventh-round pick, critics in the football cognoscente were split on what to think. On the one hand, Buffalo would get a sure-fire playmaker at wide receiver in Diggs; a refined route runner who was also coming off a career-high 1,130 receiving yard year with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback. On the other, many were quick to label Diggs as a diva for demanding a trade of Minneapolis several times on social media, believing he was an afterthought in Mike Zimmer’s run-focused offense. After nearly a full season in Orchard Park, it might be too early to call, but it seems like both sides one the trade here. On Minnesota’s side, they might have lost one dynamic route-runner in Diggs, but were quickly able to replace him with another in rookie phenom Justin Jefferson, who could be challenging Justin Herbert for rookie of the year honors. On Buffalo’s side, Diggs has been nothing but stellar for the Bills. He’s quickly established great chemistry with Josh Allen (56%/238/2/1), contributing to a severely underrated receiving corps, alongside with Cole Beasley (5-41) and John Brown (DNP), that each brings something different to the table. Against Pittsburgh, Diggs (10/130/1) recorded his 100thcatch of the season, becoming the first player to reach the milestone in 2020, as well as surpassing his career-high in receiving yards with 1,167.  

Steelers lose, Chiefs Win 

            After that suffering their first loss of the season to the Washington team that has no name last Monday, Pittsburgh came into week 14 looking for a chance to bounce back and resolidify their hold on the AFC playoff seeding. Unfortunately, they were met with a Bills team that didn’t care. Pittsburgh lost two more linemen to injury against Buffalo, leaving them with just the five on the field to work with. Add that with the fact that the Steelers came in with 12 total drops in their last two games, adding on four more to the pile, and that “Big Ben” Roethlisberger (57%/187/2/2) was either overthrowing or placing the ball behind his receivers, and you’re looking at some immense ineptitude on display by the Steelers offense. As for that vaunted Steelers defense, it may not look like it in the box score, but they put up a good fight. In the secondary, the safety duo of Mike Hilton and Cameron Sutton made life a living hell for Buffalo in the first half. Hilton picked off Allen in the first quarter after Cameron Heyward smacked Allen on his arm, forcing the ball to float up there and land in the safety’s hand. Sutton was on the receiving end of an unfortunate Dawson Knox fumble, where Hilton forced the ball out of the tight end’s hands, where it then bounced off Knox’s forearm, and fell right into Sutton’s hand. That fumble then led to Pittsburgh’s first TD of the night. Overall, this loss not only helps solidify the notion that Pittsburgh is the worst 11-0 team in NFL history, but it knocks them out of the one seed, elevating Kansas City to that spot. The good news for Pittsburgh is their schedule looks lighter, looking like they could win out with games against Cincinnati, Indianapolis, & Cleveland. The bad news: so could the Chiefs, with games against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Los Angeles (Chargers) lined up. 

What’s next? 

            Buffalo has their last out-of-division game to look forward to, flying a mile high up to take on Denver. As for Pittsburgh, they might finally get their bounce-back game on Monday night, as they delve into the jungle that is Cincinnati.  

Writer

-By: Juan Guarin-Camargo