Last season, the AFC crown came down to the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. In that game, the Chiefs came out victorious, making their way to their second straight Super Bowl appearance after winning it the year before. One year later, both teams meet again in the divisional round in a game that has the chance to be the game of the year. Let us analyze all three phases of the ball for each team, as well as coaching, and predict who is going back to the AFC Championship game.

How They Got Here

While both teams won their division, it was not always easy for both squads, as they each went through some bumps in the road throughout the season. Starting with Buffalo, after a 4-2 start heading into the bye, they went 3-4 in their first seven games after, including a bad 9-6 loss to Jacksonville. Another bad loss was a 41-15 beatdown by the Colts, who also lost to Jacksonville in the final week of the season. They also lost a game in which their opponent, the Patriots, threw three passes. After these struggles though, Buffalo ended the season on a four-game winning streak and beat those same Patriots in dominant fashion in the first round of the playoffs, 47-17. When Buffalo wins, they dominate. They have won every game by at least 12 points, shut out two teams, and won by 30 or more points three times. It is the close games that have given Buffalo fits.

As for Kansas City, there were similar concerns but raised to a different level after starting the season 3-4 and turning the ball over at will. After an embarrassing 27-3 loss to the Titans in Week 7, Kansas City promptly won nine out of ten to end the season, which included an eight-game winning streak. Their only loss was to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17, a 34-31 shootout loss. After clinching the AFC West against the Steelers in Week 16, the Chiefs took care of business of them in the Wild Card round, steamrolling them to the tune of 42-21.

Allen vs. Mahomes

In a game that may feature the two best young quarterbacks in the league, there should be tons of fireworks in this one. Some may even call it the modern-day version of Manning vs. Brady. Regardless, Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes should be nothing short of electric. Starting Mahomes, it was a tough start for the young superstar. Despite this, his numbers to end the season were anything but a struggle, completing 66% of his passes for 4,839 yards, throwing 37 TD to 13 INT. After throwing 12 picks threw Week 13, Mahomes threw just one over the last five weeks while tossing a whopping 12 TD’s in that span. In the first round of the playoffs, Mahomes was nearly perfect, going 30/39 with 404 yards and 5 touchdowns. By far his best performance of the season.

As for Allen, he was slightly worse, but using the term worse is a disservice to the season Allen had. Allen totaled 42 TD to 15 INT with 4,407 passing yards and 763 rushing yards. It was either perfect for Allen, or the sky looked like it was falling, but most of the time it was on the better side. Allen is still prone to turn the ball over at a higher clip than you would like, but his incredible athletic ability and maturation on the fly have made that an occurrence less and less. It is crazy to think that Mahomes performance was the second-best of Wild Card weekend, but because of Allen, here we are. Allen was as locked in as you can possibly be, putting up one of the best playoff performances in recent memory, if not NFL history. Allen diced up an elite Patriots defense, going 21/25 with 308 yards and 5 touchdowns, while also rushing for 66 yards in the victory. Both Mahomes and Allen had passer ratings over 135, with Allen getting the better mark at 157.6 (158.3 is perfect).

Matchups to Watch

As expected, TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill will show up for the Chiefs, as well as WR Stefon Diggs and TE Dawson Knox for the Bills, but the matchup to watch is in the backfield between HB’s Jerick McKinnon (Chiefs) and Devin Singletary (Bills). Starting with McKinnon, who was basically a non-factor during the regular season, turned 20 touches into 142 yards and a touchdown. He had 169 total yards in the regular season. Even with HB Clyde Edwards-Helaire practicing this week for Kansas City with a chance to play, there is no way McKinnon does not start or play the bulk of the snaps. Players that get hot in the playoffs tend to stay hot and that might be the case for McKinnon. 

On the other side, HB Devin Singletary ended the season strong and carried that into the playoffs. Since Week 15, Singletary has 404 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, including the playoffs. The main correlation is that Buffalo has not lost since he started playing well, taking some pressure off Josh Allen. It will not be the focal point of either offense because of how potent the passing games are, but there is a chance the team that can run the ball the best will win this game.

Defense

Because of how explosive the offenses are, some people forget about how good the defenses are as well. Starting with Buffalo, they were ranked the number one defense in total yards and points allowed. They gave up 30 points three times all season and lost all three games. Despite this, Buffalo allowed 20 points or less 10 times this season, including holding the Chiefs to 20 in a blowout win in Week 5. Buffalo can beat you on both sides of the ball, despite being somehow underrated on defense.

Like the offense, Kansas City’s defense was not pretty early on, but turned a corner and never looked back. After giving up 29 or more points in their first five games, the Chiefs gave up 20 points or more in just four of their last 12 games, including holding teams to under 15 for a month straight. It is going to be tough to stop these offenses, so getting one-stop might be the difference in this ballgame.

Prediction

While I truly do not know who has the edge in this game, I am going to predict the Chiefs to win in an extremely close game. The Chiefs did not have as emotional of a victory as Buffalo last week just based on their opponent and may have a little more in the tank than Buffalo. If the Bills come out flat, the Chiefs might go up three scores in a blink if they are not careful. While yes, the Bills will be locked in, the Chiefs have been rolling for the better part of two months and have seemed to hit their stride. While the Bills did as well, I feel if both teams play a perfect game, the Chiefs have just barely more talent to get the win in the Divisional Round.

Stats from profootballreference.com

Writer

-By: Richie Dordas

In the AFC Divisional round last season, the Kansas City Chiefs took on the Cleveland Browns, where they would go on to win 22-17. Fast forward to Week 1, Kansas City and Cleveland win again. Once again, the two-time defending AFC champion came out on top, taking down the Browns by a score of 33-29. Let us look at the details of this game and some key factors for both teams.

Game Details

For Kansas City, it was a bit of a slow start for them, but a strong second-half led them to victory. QB Patrick Mahomes continued his September success, going 27/36 with 337 yards and 3 TD. In September, he is now 11-0 with 35 TD and 0 INT, incredible. Star WR Tyreek Hill led the air raid with a line of 11/197/1. This included a long 75-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter. TE Travis Kelce dominated the middle of the field once again, catching six balls for 76 yards and 2 TD. The running game was not as effective, on the other hand. HB Clyde Edwards-Helaire went 14/43, while Mahomes scored the lone rushing touchdown on a scramble. Defensively, Juan Thornhill forced a crucial fumble on Browns RB Nick Chubb and CB Mike Hughes had the game-winning interception to seal it. DT Chris Jones also recorded two sacks in the victory.

In the loss, the Browns offense played well. QB Baker Mayfield, went 21/28 with 321 and an interception. Mayfield targeted nine pass catchers in the game, with TE David Njoku leading the way with 76 yards on three catches. Chubb led the running game, which is a staple in the Browns offense, with 15 carries on 83 yards and 2 TD’s. RB Kareem Hunt also pitched in a 6/33/1 line. WR Jarvis Landry also scored a rushing TD on top of his five-catch, 76-yard day. On the other side of the ball, LB Anthony Walker led the way with nine tackles. DE’s Joe Jackson and Myles Garrett both recorded sacks in the game as well in the loss.

Don’t Call it a Comeback

It seems like every time Mahomes and the Chiefs fall behind in a game, they find a way to come back. With his 2020 playoff run being the most notable of his accomplishments via the comeback, Mahomes has made a career out of it in his short but illustrious career. In his career, Mahomes has 8 game-winning drives and 7 4th Quarter Comebacks. He is also now 10-6 in his career when trailing by 10 or more points in any game. He is truly special and is never out of a game no matter what the score is. In this game, the Chiefs were down 15-3, 22-10, and 29-20, yet still found a way to win the game 33-29. While yes, it is a team effort, Mahomes leads the way and is a major reason for the comeback.

Browns, Baker Fall Short

We talked about the stats before and for the Browns, they were very encouraging. In the second half though, the Browns beat themselves and failed to finish the game. With the ball up five, Nick Chubb coughed up the rock, giving the Chiefs three free points because of field position. Later in the game, P Jamie Gillan dropped a punt, giving the Chiefs a short field, something you never want to do. Lastly, when Mayfield went to throw it away, he tripped and ended up throwing an interception. The Browns beat themselves, which can happen when you are a young team, as the Browns have the third-youngest roster in football. Their talent kept them in this game but learning how to finish games will be the next step the Browns need to take to catch the Chiefs in the AFC.

Looking Ahead

Next week, the Kansas City Chiefs get a Sunday Night Football matchup on the road against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (0-1), who are coming off an overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. For the Browns, they will have their home opener against the Houston Texans (1-0), who are coming off a blowout win against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Stats from profootballreference.com

Schedule info from espn.com

Writer

-By: Richie Dordas

One way or another, history will be made on February 7th. The Chiefs have the potential to forge a dynasty, but they must first get past the dynasty himself. Of course, we’re referring to Tom Brady, the ageless wonder now attending his NFL record tenth Super Bowl. The best quarterback right now versus the best quarterback of all time… who’s complaining? Here are our predictions:

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 30

Micah Jimoh

I’m torn. While I do believe the Chiefs are the slightly better team, I’ve spent the better part of the last decade learning not to bet against Brady-led teams. They simply find ways to win. So why not just choose TB? Well, I’ve also spent the better part of the last two years learning not to bet against Mahomes-led teams. They also simply find ways to win. Even if you’re someone who believes the NFL is scripted, which storyline would benefit the league more? Are the Chiefs forging a dynasty or the G.O.A.T getting #7? My point here is that this game is simply dead even in every ridiculous way you can measure it. My gut says KC, but I’ve developed a second gut from watching Tom Brady ridicule me for ten years. I’ll go with my first one-- I think.

Prediction: Chiefs 41, Buccaneers 34

Kevin Rakas

This has the makings of a high-scoring affair, and that is what I am predicting. However, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the winning score ended up being in the mid-to-upper-20s. While this should be a fairly even matchup between two potent offenses, I think the Chiefs will try even harder to prove a point on the scoreboard after offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy failed to land a head coaching position for the second straight year. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is trying to become just the third player in NFL history to win two straight Super Bowl MVP awards (Packers quarterback Bart Starr in Super Bowls I and II, and Steelers quarterback Terry Bradshaw in Super Bowls XIII and XIV), but I think if the Chiefs do win, the honor will go to either wide receiver Tyreek Hill or tight end Travis Kelce. 

Prediction: Chiefs 38, Buccaneers 28 

Ben Schwartz

If you are a “the NFL is rigged” type of person, then the matchup this Sunday is most likely what you were expecting. Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback of all time, is looking to move past the final obstacle on his road to championship #7. Patrick Mahomes, the brightest star in the game, looks to propel his team to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl Champions since Brady’s ‘03 and ‘04 Patriots. It’s old versus new, and I think new will win out. It is very difficult for me to imagine a scenario where the Chiefs are not able to expose the young Buccaneers secondary and throw the ball all over the field throughout the entire game. This Bucs defense made Taylor Heinicke look like a seasoned veteran and Aaron Rodgers had a very successful game as well, despite the loss. Just like their regular-season matchup in Week 12, I see the Chiefs jumping out to an early lead, but this time they don’t let up and ride a 350-yard, 4-touchdown night from Mahomes to their second straight title. 

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 21

TJ Mathewson

In my opinion, Sunday’s big game is going to be the passing of the torch from the current GOAT to the future GOAT. That’s just how good Patrick Mahomes has been in his first three years as a starter, and I’m predicting he’ll add to that on Super Bowl Sunday. The Bucs have surprised me with their performance this postseason, mostly because the defense has played out of its mind. Yeah, Tom Brady this Tom Brady, but Brady has been far from the reason the Bucs have been winning in the playoffs. He won’t get away with completing less than 56 percent of his passes (Hasn’t done that in any game) and throwing three picks against Mahomes, or Andy Reid putting his tail between his legs on a fourth and goal (LaFleur, seriously??). The Bucs feasted off of a strong pass rush and capitalized on turnovers.  The Chiefs sleep-walked through the regular season then blew through both the Browns and the Bills when the bright lights turned on and Mahomes was on the field. They blew through the Bucs in three-quarters of their regular-season matchup before letting off the gas and Tampa making the score respectable (27-24). Sorry, Tom, there won’t be a Belichick defensive game plan to bail you out of this Super Bowl. Chiefs repeat.

Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 28.

Jacob Keppen

I will be going against the consensus at Inside The Hashes for one reason: It’s Tom Brady. Even if all logic tells me to, I just cannot bet against the greatest football player of all time. He simply finds ways to win it in the big game, even when everyone doubts him. I believe the Buccaneers offense will be firing on all cylinders, backed by their home crowd. They will run the ball, looking to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands. Brady will be surgical and smart when he has to pass. If Antonio Brown is on the field, he will have a big play for a touchdown. This ultimately will be a close game that goes down to the wire. The Chiefs will put up points when they have the ball, I believe Travis Kelce will have a massive game. Kelce might break Gronkowski’s record for receiving yards by a tight end right in front of him. Ultimately I believe Kansas City’s line will lead to their downfall. Without a true run game, especially against a stout Tampa Bay run defense, Mahomes will be forced to drop back… a lot. That line will not hold up all game long. The Bucs will be able to get to Mahomes, and I’m expecting Shaq Barrett to have a big game. I’m predicting that it’s back and forth all game, the Bucs force a big turnover late, and Tom Brady does what he does best: win.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Chiefs 21

Richie Dordas

Are the Chiefs favored? Yes. Are they the better team? Yes. Should they win? Yes. After all that, I am still taking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl because of the man running the show, QB Tom Brady. If his six Super Bowls have not told you already, Brady just knows how to win the game. Despite this, I feel that Tampa Bay has a good system in place to attack the Chiefs defense and keep QB Patrick Mahomes off the field. If they can run the ball with RB’s Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette, they can force the Chiefs to play from behind and make Mahomes throw. This would be an opportunity to get pressure in his face, which is the perfect way to beat a great quarterback. The key to the Bucs victory will be getting to Mahomes, as well as stopping the Chiefs from getting to Brady. Everything is telling you to take the Chiefs and rightfully so, but Tom Brady has shown time and time again that he has that extra gear that just gets it done in the Super Bowl.

Prediction: Chiefs 37 Bucs 31

Sam Kirk

One would think betting against Brady in his tenth Super Bowl would make zero sense. If Brady and his new team were hosting any other team in the NFL in Super Bowl LV they would most likely be favored but Bruce Arian’s squad will have the best offense in the league to go up against. Tampa Bay’s defense has been everything any Bucs fan could ask for. But, before this team's Week 13 bye they were only sitting at troubling 7-5. They lost an ugly game in Chicago on a Thursday Night at the beginning of the year as well as barely holding on against a Giants team on a last-second two-point conversion attempt. This Tampa Bay team is loaded on all sides of the football when you are looking at the roster on paper, but Brady has yet to play a Super Bowl without Bill Belichick and the Patriots staff the combination of that and the injuries so far during the week of linebacker Lavonte David, wide-receiver Antonio Brown, and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. not practicing should set up for some Mahomes magic on Sunday. That Buccaneers secondary has had it coming to them for weeks now consistently on social media talking up a storm, and from my perspective, Mahomes will put them in their place by Sunday Night. I know Brady’s fourth super bowl loss is hard to believe but has he ever went up against a Quarterback who we all knew was as good if not better than the six-time champion? 

Prediction: Buccaneers 35 Chiefs 31

Juan Pablo Guarín-Camargo

There are titillating matchups on nearly every level of this game; the trenches, the secondary, even the coaching staff!! But ultimately, it’s the QB matchup that’s going to be dominating every sports television debate, newspaper op-ed, and open-bar discussion. Tom Brady, the all-but-accepted GOAT of the sport, going up against a young buck, the answer to who the “next Tom Brady” is in Patrick Mahomes. One looking to cement his legacy as the greatest to ever have done it. The other, trying to overtake his predecessor and begin a new dynasty in this league. Ultimately, these are two guys built for clutch, high-scoring situations; Brady using his tactician-like mind to analyze an opposing defense and adjust his game plan accordingly, while Mahomes is just “sling it and praying” to his top-tier targets in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, which is the minimum effort that offense needs to do in order to go up early. It’ll be a high scoring affair down at Raymond James, but it’ll come down to which defense can ultimately make a stop against these two historic arm-talents. And with that being said, I have much more faith in Todd Bowles’ unit holding up than I do in Stephen Spagnuolo’s.